The peak season is officially over. So why does the market still feel like a pressure cooker?
If you've been watching container rates over the past couple of weeks, you've probably noticed the numbers coming off their highs. That's not a surprise-China's Golden Week holiday has a way of doing that. Factories close, exports slow, and the spot market catches its breath.
But here's what's catching shippers off guard: even as rates soften, carriers are lining up to push them back up. And the gap between what the market is doing and what carriers want it to do is where things get interesting.
The Post-Holiday Cooldown Is Real
Let's look at the numbers first, because they tell a pretty clear story.
Drewry's World Container Index-the benchmark most procurement teams keep an eye on-fell 2% to $4,351 per 40ft container in the week ending October 8. On the transpacific, Shanghai to Los Angeles slipped 3% to $7,624 per 40ft, while Shanghai to New York eased 2% to $10,220.
Over on the Asia-Europe trades, the picture is even more dramatic. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped 2% to $3,337 per 40ft. And this wasn't a one-week blip-Asia-Europe spot rates have now fallen for 13 consecutive weeks.
Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst, put it simply: "Spot rates on the Far East to Europe trades have fallen heavily since the post-Hormuz crisis peak in July. The Mediterranean is taking the biggest hit, down 43% since 1 July, while North Europe is down 34%".
For European shippers in the middle of tender season, that's welcome news. Falling short-term rates give them real leverage when negotiating long-term contracts, because they benchmark against the spot market.
But Carriers Aren't Backing Down
Here's where the story takes a turn.
Even as spot rates slide, carriers are doing what carriers always do when rates fall: they're trying to reverse the trend. Multiple lines have announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) effective November 1, and the numbers aren't small.
HMM has filed a GRI of $3,000 per 40ft container on all origins to the US, Canada, and Mexico. C.H. Robinson has filed similar increases-$2,000 per 40ft on Asia, South Asia, Middle East, and Africa to US and Canada routes. Hapag-Lloyd is pushing $1,000 per container to the US East Coast and Gulf, and $1,500 to the West Coast from the Indian Subcontinent and Middle East.
And on the Asia-Europe side, carriers are introducing higher FAK rates for the second half of October. MSC announced a new FAK of $4,500 per 40ft on Far East–North Europe and Far East–West Mediterranean shipments starting October 19, while CMA CGM has announced $4,700 per 40ft on Far East–West Mediterranean and $4,900 per 40ft on Far East–East Mediterranean.
So carriers are trying to put a floor under rates. The question is: will it stick?
Why the Pushback Might Not Work
The honest answer is that nobody knows for sure. But there are some pretty significant headwinds working against carrier efforts.
The biggest one? The Suez Canal.
After months of rerouting around Africa, vessels are returning to the Red Sea route faster than expected. That's adding capacity back into the Asia-Europe trade at a time when demand is already softening. As Drewry noted, "the faster-than-expected return to the Suez route remains the biggest threat to carrier efforts to support rates".
There's also the demand side. Peter Sand pointed out that while demand has been strong all year, "it could not keep growing at double-digits indefinitely". As demand eases from a very high level, the fight for capacity eases too-and even freight forwarders are getting better deals from carriers in long-term contract negotiations.
That's not the kind of environment where rate hikes tend to stick.
The Hidden Wildcard: Port Congestion
But here's something that doesn't get enough attention in the rate conversation: congestion. And right now, it's near record levels.
According to C.H. Robinson's October Edge Report, roughly 12% of global container ship capacity is currently tied up by port congestion-the highest level in four years. That's capacity that exists on paper but isn't actually available to move your cargo.
"Capacity may exist in the ocean network, but port congestion and steps the carriers are taking to get schedules back on track can change where and when that capacity is actually available," C.H. Robinson noted.
This is the piece most shippers miss. Headline fleet capacity looks healthy. But if a meaningful chunk of it is stuck waiting outside congested ports in East Asia, Northern Europe, or the Indian Subcontinent, then effective capacity is much tighter than the numbers suggest. That tightness is part of why rates haven't fallen further than they have-and why carriers still feel confident enough to announce GRIs.
What This Means for Your Bottom Line
So where does that leave you?
First, don't expect rates to collapse. Peter Sand's view is that "rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year". That's a useful baseline for planning.
Second, be careful about where you lock in. With carriers pushing GRIs while the underlying market is softening, there's real risk in signing a rigid long-term deal at the wrong moment. Drewry's head of advisory, Chantal McRoberts, warned that price increases could come through surcharges rather than base rate levels-and that inflated fuel surcharges and pre-peak season surcharges are already showing up. Her advice: "put up guardrails around contract rates".
Third, the east-west coast spread on the transpacific is expected to narrow. Sand predicts that rolling forward three months, spot rates into the US East Coast could land in the $6,000–$7,000 range, while the West Coast sits around $4,500–$5,500. If your routing is flexible, that spread is worth watching.
This Is Where the Right Partner Matters
In a market this contradictory-rates falling, carriers hiking, congestion eating capacity, Suez reopening-the difference between a smooth supply chain and a costly mess often comes down to who you're working with.
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been navigating markets exactly like this since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials. That means we have direct access to the market intelligence that smaller forwarders simply don't see-and we use it to help our clients stay ahead of rate movements instead of reacting to them.
- Real relationships, real capacity. We work with over 100 overseas agents worldwide. When carriers announce GRIs or blank sailings, we're not reading about it in a newsletter. We're already on the phone with our carrier partners, securing space and locking in rates before the crunch hits.
- Flexibility when the market shifts. Because we handle LCL consolidation ourselves, we have more control over space allocation. And with our IATA-certified division, we can pivot between ocean, air, and rail when a particular lane gets too tight or too expensive. That multi-modal agility is what keeps our clients' inventory moving when a single routing option dries up.
- Technology that gives you clarity. We've invested heavily in real-time visibility tools that give our clients actionable insight into their shipments-not just a tracking number that sits there while your container waits. When a GRI is announced or a sailing gets blanked, you hear from us immediately, with options.
- Local knowledge, global reach. Based in Xiamen-one of Asia's busiest port cities-we combine global reach with the kind of local knowledge that only comes from moving all kinds of goods for over a decade. We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients.
The Bottom Line
The post-peak cooldown is real. Rates are coming off their highs. But carriers are digging in, congestion is eating capacity, and the Suez reopening is adding a layer of unpredictability that nobody can fully price in yet.
The next two to three weeks will likely determine the course of pricing for the remainder of the year. If you're planning Q4 shipments, this is the moment to have a partner who can help you read the signals-and act on them before your competitors do.
At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate a market that doesn't make sense on paper-whether that's locking in capacity before a GRI hits, finding an alternative routing when a lane tightens, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go without paying more than you should.
Because when the market is this contradictory, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who's already in the game.
Ready to plan your Q4 shipments with a partner who understands the market? Contact Xiamen AE Global today-and let's keep your cargo moving.
