If you're shipping air freight out of the Middle East or routing cargo through Gulf hubs, you've probably already felt the ground shift beneath your feet this month.
The numbers tell the story better than any headline. Riyadh's outbound air cargo capacity on freighters and widebody passenger aircraft fell 34% over a 24-hour period, hitting just 848 tonnes, according to Rotate data. Over 72 hours, the decline was 26% compared with the same period a week earlier. Freighter-only capacity took an even harder hit: down 10% outbound and a staggering 77% inbound over 24 hours.
That's not a temporary blip. That's a third of a major cargo gateway's capacity evaporating virtually overnight.
What happened
On Thursday, Houthi forces launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports, killing three citizens and injuring others. One of Saudia Group's aircraft was damaged on the ground, and a captain was among the dead. Najran and Jazan airports are now closed until October 15, while Abha is restricted to daytime operations only.
The airport reopened by 6pm local time Thursday, but that hasn't brought airline services back to normal. Several carriers - including Lufthansa and Air India - have suspended services entirely. FAA notices showed restrictions on stands and taxiways at Riyadh, though no airport-wide closure remains in place.
For context: King Khalid International Airport handled 576,600 tonnes of cargo in 2025, making it the kingdom's busiest cargo airport, ahead of Jeddah's 458,900 tonnes. When a hub of that size loses a third of its outbound lift overnight, the ripple effects travel far beyond Saudi borders.
The worst possible timing
Here's what makes this particularly painful: the disruption is hitting just as the industry enters its year-end peak season.
Cathay Cargo director Dominic Perret said this week that suspended Middle East services have affected European freighter operations that used Dubai as an intermediate stop. "Flying direct meant payload penalties," he noted, though Cathay has found alternative stops including a summer operation in Astana.
The broader market picture is already tight. The global Baltic Air Freight Index rose 5% in the week to October 5, taking its year-on-year increase to 25.5%. Spot rates from India were around 70% higher year on year to the US, and more than 80% higher to Europe, according to TAC Index data. Meanwhile, average jet fuel prices were up 108% year on year by October 2.
And demand? It's not slowing down. Perret said demand to the Americas remains strong, supported by high-value technology shipments for AI and data centre infrastructure. "We are anticipating a strong peak season," he said. "In fact, one of our main challenges is having sufficient capacity to meet demand".
That's the situation in a nutshell: capacity shrinking, demand growing, rates climbing. Classic supply-demand mismatch - except this time, it's compounded by a geopolitical shock.
What this means for shippers
If you're moving cargo through Saudi Arabia or the broader Gulf region, you need to prepare for three things: longer transit times, higher rates, and tighter space.
Forwarders are already exploring alternative routes and capacity options, according to industry reports. Shippers may need to book space earlier, maintain flexible routing options, and allow additional time for time-sensitive consignments. The disruption highlights just how vulnerable global air cargo networks are to regional shocks, especially during periods of heightened demand.
This is exactly where the right logistics partner makes the difference
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been navigating air cargo disruptions since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials - and as an IATA-approved agent with strong relationships across major airlines, we can secure space that others simply can't when the market tightens.
We work with over 100 overseas agents worldwide, giving us real-time intelligence on alternative routings when a hub like Riyadh gets disrupted. When carriers suspend services, we're already on the phone with our partners about bypass options - whether that means rerouting through alternative Gulf gateways, shifting to air-sea combinations, or finding capacity on carriers that haven't pulled out of the region.
We specialise in DDP and DDU air freight, meaning we handle the entire risk chain - not just the booking. When capacity is scarce and rates are volatile, having a partner who manages the full picture - customs, last-mile delivery, documentation - is worth more than a cheap rate that disappears when you need it most.
And because we handle LCL consolidation ourselves, we have more control over space allocation. When smaller shipments risk getting bumped in favour of full containers or high-yield ecommerce cargo, our operations team is on-site, managing allocations in real time.
We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients. Our technology platform gives you actual visibility into your shipments - not just a tracking number, but actionable insight into routing, schedules, and alternatives.
What you should do right now
If you have air cargo moving through the Middle East in the coming weeks, don't wait for the situation to "settle down." Here's what we're telling our clients:
- Book earlier than you think you need to. The peak season crunch was already building before the Saudi attacks. Now it's worse. Lead times that worked in September won't work in October.
- Keep your routing options open. A shipment that would normally transit through Riyadh or Dubai may need to go through alternative hubs. Flexibility is your best insurance against disruption.
- Talk to your forwarder about alternatives now. Air-to-sea conversions, rail options, or even trucking from alternative gateways may make sense depending on your cargo and timeline.
- Expect rates to stay elevated. Jet fuel is double last year's level, capacity is constrained, and demand isn't letting up. The days of cheap, abundant air freight aren't coming back this quarter.
The bottom line
Riyadh losing a third of its outbound air cargo capacity overnight is a reminder that in global logistics, nothing is guaranteed. Ports close. Airspace shuts down. Carriers pull out. And when all that happens just as peak season hits, the shippers who come out ahead are the ones who planned for disruption before it arrived.
At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate the unexpected - whether that's finding alternative routings around a disrupted hub, securing space when capacity is tight, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go, even when the map keeps changing.
Because when the market is this unpredictable, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who's already in the game.
Concerned about how the Saudi disruption might affect your air shipments? Contact Xiamen AE Global today for a capacity check and alternative routing options.
