If you've been shipping cargo from Europe to the U.S. over the past six months, you probably don't need anyone to tell you it's been a wild ride. One week, rates are sliding like a greased ramp. The next, carriers are slapping on emergency surcharges and pulling capacity left and right. And somewhere in between, everyone just tried to keep their containers from getting rolled.
Well, here's some good news: things are finally settling down.
After a first quarter that most in the industry would rather forget, westbound transatlantic capacity is starting to find some balance. Let's talk about what happened, where we are now, and-because that's probably why you're here-what it actually means for your supply chain.
What on earth happened in Q1?
Let's start with the bad news first, just to get it out of the way. The first three months of 2026 were rough on this trade lane. Throughput was down by just over 3% compared to the same period last year-that's about 40,000 TEUs that didn't move across the pond. The pricing situation wasn't pretty either. The Container Trades Statistics Price Index for the Europe–North America route had been sliding since the beginning of 2025, and it kept sliding into early 2026-down to 84 in January, then 83 in February.
Carriers were bleeding money. Hapag-Lloyd posted a US$174 million operating loss in its liner business for the quarter, and the CEO didn't sugarcoat it: the transatlantic exposure was a big part of the problem. When a major carrier says a trade route is "no longer possible to provide at reasonable cost," you know things aren't great.
So what did carriers do? The same thing they always do when the math stops working: they pulled capacity. And not just a little. Over the past 12 months, the number of monthly transatlantic services dropped from 55 to 50, with pure transatlantic services falling from 44 to 38. That's six entire services gone. In April, Hapag-Lloyd shut down its CES transatlantic service entirely-seven ships, 2,700 TEUs each, gone.
Then came April, and everything flipped
Here's where the story gets interesting. Around the start of April, spot rates on the westbound transatlantic trade staged a surprising recovery. And it didn't come from a sudden surge in demand-it came from two things. First, the capacity reductions we just talked about finally took effect. Second, the Strait of Hormuz conflict triggered a wave of emergency fuel surcharges from pretty much every major carrier out there, which pushed rates back up.
The numbers tell the story. According to the latest data from NYSHEX's New York Freight Index, transatlantic westbound rates grew 12% week over week to reach US2,253per40ftcontainer[reference:6].Toputthatinperspective,thelowpointofthepast12monthswasbackinNovemberatjustUS2,253per40ftcontainer[reference:6].Toputthatinperspective,thelowpointofthepast12monthswasbackinNovemberatjustUS1,342. That's a pretty dramatic turnaround.
Drewry's data tells a similar story. As of mid-May, the World Container Index was up 12% overall, with transatlantic rates climbing 3% in just one week. And while that's a more modest bump compared to the transpacific or Asia–Europe lanes, the fact that it's happening at all-in a trade lane that was basically flatlining-speaks volumes.
But here's what smart shippers are watching right now
Just when you think you've got this market figured out, carriers throw a curveball. ONE recently deployed its massive 13,700 TEU vessel, the ONE Satisfaction, on the transatlantic trade. That's a significant upsizing-most vessels on this lane typically run in the 6,000 to 10,000 TEU range. And the forwarders on the ground are already watching closely. One industry insider told The Loadstar he expects the additional capacity to put downward pressure on rates, bringing them close to February levels once all the surcharges settle out.
Translation? Don't get too comfortable. This market still has some wiggles left in it.
So what does this mean for your shipments?
Let's be real: reading about rate fluctuations and capacity adjustments is all well and good, but what you actually care about is whether your containers are going to move on time and whether you're going to get blindsided by unexpected costs.
Here's the honest answer: the transatlantic trade lane is still more volatile than it was a year ago, and it probably will be for a while. Schedule reliability on the westbound route has dropped into the mid-40% range on some rotations, meaning your chances of a smooth sailing are-let's just say-less than a coin toss right now. When services get canceled or rescheduled, and when vessel deployments shift, your carefully planned shipment can end up bumped to the next sailing without much warning.
That's why who you work with matters more now than it did six months ago. This isn't a market for "set it and forget it" logistics.
This is where we actually help
At XMAE Logistics, we don't just watch these market shifts from the sidelines. We're a government-licensed freight forwarder with full NVOCC status, AEO advanced certification, and a global network of over 100 overseas agents. We move cargo by ocean, air, rail, and road-and we have the relationships, the data, and the on-the-ground team to make sure your shipments don't get stuck in the chaos.
Our port relationships give us priority berthing at over 30 major global gateways, including Rotterdam (a key hub for transatlantic cargo). And our customs clearance team maintains a 99.8% success rate on China–EU–USA routes, so your paperwork doesn't become the thing that derails your delivery timeline.
We're also based in Xiamen, one of China's most efficient ports, with streamlined customs clearance and excellent multimodal connectivity. That means when something goes sideways on a transatlantic sailing-a blank sailing, a schedule change, a port closure-we have the flexibility to pivot. Maybe that means shifting to a different gateway. Maybe it means mixing ocean and air to meet a tight deadline. Whatever it takes, we figure it out before it costs you money.
We don't do surprise surcharges or hidden fees, either. Our quotes are all-inclusive, and we're transparent about every line item. In a market where carriers are stacking emergency bunker surcharges left and right and the FMC is pushing back on waivers, knowing exactly what you're paying-and why-isn't a luxury. It's a necessity.
A couple of things to keep in mind
If you're planning transatlantic shipments for the second half of the year, here's what we'd suggest:
Book early. Capacity is still being managed tightly, and carriers have gotten very good at blanking sailings to protect rates. If you wait until the last minute, you might find yourself competing for a very small number of spots.
Don't rely solely on spot rates. Yes, they look attractive when rates are low-but when the market flips (and it flips fast), spot rates can jump 25% basically overnight. Contract rates give you predictability, and predictability is worth paying for when schedules are this messy.
Keep an eye on the ONE situation. That big vessel they just put on the lane could change the supply-demand balance in ways that haven't fully played out yet. We're watching it daily, and we'll adjust our strategies accordingly.
The bottom line
The westbound transatlantic trade had a rough Q1. Capacity got pulled, rates hit bottom, and carriers bled money. But April brought a recovery-driven by capacity discipline and those fuel surcharges nobody really wanted-and May has seen things stabilize at much healthier levels.
Is the volatility completely behind us? Probably not. The market is still fragile. Schedule reliability is still shaky. And carriers are still playing chess with their vessel deployments.
But here's the thing: volatility doesn't have to mean unpredictability for your business. Not when you're working with a logistics partner who lives and breathes this stuff every single day. We've been moving cargo through COVID, port strikes, Red Sea disruptions, and now Strait of Hormuz fallout. This isn't our first rodeo, and it won't be our last.
So whether you're shipping FCL or LCL, ocean or air, from China to the world or from Europe to the U.S.-give us a call. We'll give you straight talk on rates, real options, and a plan that actually works. No jargon. No fluff. Just freight that moves.
Ready to ship smarter? Get in touch with XMAE Logistics today.
