After weeks of relentless hikes sparked by the Iran conflict, air cargo rates are finally showing signs of leveling off. But don't pop the champagne just yet - fuel remains a stubborn headache that's keeping the market on edge.
The latest numbers from The Loadstar, citing WorldACD data, show global spot rates inched up just 1% week on week in mid-April, now sitting at $3.73 per kilo. That's the smallest bump since the whole mess kicked off in late February. Good news, right? Well, sort of. We're still looking at rates that are more than 40% above pre-conflict levels and 46% higher than this time last year.
So what's driving the cooldown? Capacity is finally making a comeback, especially around the Middle East & South Asia region, where lift jumped 7% week on week. The capacity gap compared to pre-war levels has narrowed to about 30%. Carriers are getting creative too. Some are rebuilding networks and adding freighter services, chasing higher yields on certain lanes rather than just going back to business as usual.
But here's where things get tricky - fuel.
Jet fuel has basically doubled year over year, jumping around 78% since the crisis escalated. And it's not just a Middle Eastern problem anymore. Stockpiles on the US West Coast are hitting multi-year lows, and refineries are prioritizing diesel over jet fuel, pushing premiums up by US50–50–70 per barrel above crude. Airlines are cutting marginal routes, avoiding older fuel-guzzling freighters, and rethinking their whole network math. As one expert put it, "you can't throw money at that problem. If there's no fuel, there's no fuel".
The Asia-Europe lane tells a mixed story. Outbound rates from Asia Pacific are up 3% week on week to US$5.14 per kg, but actual volumes from Asia to Europe fell 3%. China–Europe rates are still sitting around Rmb37.54 per kg, with Shanghai–Frankfurt at Rmb39.42. Meanwhile, China-US pricing remains even stronger at Rmb44.49, and India–Europe rates have shot up sharply.
So where does that leave shippers trying to move freight in and out of China?
That's where XMAE Logistics comes in.
Navigating this kind of whipsaw market requires more than just a rate quote - it takes real boots-on-the-ground expertise and a network you can lean on. Backed by more than a decade of experience in freight forwarding and logistics, XMAE Logistics holds government licensing plus IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials. With a network of over 100 overseas agents, we offer a full suite of services covering airfreight, ocean freight, courier, customs clearance, warehousing, and project cargo handling.
When capacity shifts overnight and fuel surcharges change by the week, having partners who can think on their feet makes all the difference. Our airfreight team continuously tracks lane-level capacity and cost trends, so we can help clients avoid getting caught off guard by sudden rate spikes or routing disruptions. Whether you need reliable air cargo out of Xiamen, flexible DDU/DDP/EXW arrangements, or door-to-door solutions that take the guesswork out of cross-border shipping, XMAE Logistics works to find pathways that balance speed, reliability, and cost-effectiveness.
The ceasefire may have brought some stability back to Gulf aviation markets, but don't mistake that for smooth sailing ahead. Fuel constraints are a global issue now, and recovery is going to take months, not weeks.
Want to stay ahead of the curve? Talk to the team at XMAE Logistics. We'll help you make sense of the market - and keep your supply chain moving when the rest of the industry is still scratching its head.
�� Need a real air freight quote for your next China shipment? Visit xmaelogistics.com and let's get your goods moving.
