If you've been watching air freight markets lately, you might be forgiven for feeling a bit confused.
Demand is up. Rates are still high. But they're not climbing like they used to. And depending on which trade lane you're looking at, the picture looks completely different.
Here's what's actually happening – and why it matters for your supply chain.
The headline numbers tell a clear story
Global air cargo demand remained strong in August, with volumes up 6% year on year – higher than July's 5% growth. WorldACD's figures put the increase at 5% for the month. Either way you slice it, the market is growing.
But here's where it gets interesting. Despite that demand growth, global air cargo spot rates in August averaged US$3.13 per kilogram – still 24% higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth has been easing for three consecutive months. The 41% peak in May is long gone.
Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, put it this way: "How you see the market depends on where you sit. Rates are easing their way down month-on-month, and the gap to last year's levels is narrowing, perfectly in line with what we expected" .
But don't mistake easing for collapsing
Here's the reality check. Capacity in August was flat year on year, while Xeneta's dynamic load factor – which measures how full planes actually are – sat three percentage points higher than August 2025 at 61%. In plain English: demand is still outstripping supply.
And jet fuel prices? They're rising again. The Baltic Air Freight Index showed rates remained almost unchanged across August – defying the usual summer slowdown pattern – partly because fuel costs climbed about 8.2% over the month.
The structural shift that's changing everything
The clearest change in the data isn't about overall demand – it's about what is being shipped, and where.
China's low-value and e-commerce exports fell 11% year on year in July, with exports to Europe dropping a whopping 25%. The culprit? The EU's removal of its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value goods on 1 July, replaced by a flat €3 per item customs duty.
But here's the twist: Xeneta expects this to be short-lived. When the US removed its de minimis threshold in 2025, China's e-commerce exports to the US initially dipped – then recovered to stand 23% higher year on year in July 2026.
Meanwhile, combined China and Hong Kong air cargo volumes to the US were up 13% year on year in August. And rates from Asia to North America continued to climb – up 28.7% year on year.
What this means for your air freight
The market is stable, but it's not simple. Demand is growing, rates are gradually easing, but fuel costs are creeping back up. E-commerce volumes to Europe have taken a hit, but higher-value cargo and AI-driven demand – particularly from data centre and semiconductor sectors – are keeping planes full.
For shippers, this creates a tricky balance. You're not facing the panic of May's peak rates, but you're also not seeing the big drop you might have hoped for. As van de Wouw noted: "It remains a seller's market" .
This is where experience actually pays off
Navigating a market like this requires more than just watching rate indices. It requires relationships, real-time intelligence, and a partner who understands that the numbers on a screen don't always tell the full story.
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been moving air freight through exactly this kind of complexity since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials – which means when the market shifts, we have the global network and the carrier relationships to secure space for our clients, even when capacity is tight.
With over 100 overseas agents worldwide, we don't just watch the rate reports from a distance. We work directly with our partners on the ground to understand what's really happening on each trade lane. When China-Europe e-commerce volumes took a hit in July, we knew about it – and we adjusted our clients' strategies accordingly.
Technology that gives you clarity, not confusion
We've invested heavily in technology that gives our clients real visibility – not just a tracking number, but actual insight into what's happening with capacity, schedules, and costs. When fuel prices rise or a trade lane shifts, we don't wait for you to find out the hard way. We alert you immediately and present options.
Local knowledge, global reach
Based in Xiamen – one of Asia's busiest air cargo hubs – we combine the global reach of an IATA and FIATA-approved forwarder with the local knowledge of a partner who's been shipping all kinds of goods for over a decade. We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients. That's not luck – it's relentless execution and a network that doesn't fall apart when the market gets complicated.
The bottom line
Air cargo demand is up 6%. Rates are still elevated but easing. E-commerce to Europe is down, but AI and high-value cargo are picking up the slack. Fuel costs are rising again. And the market is holding steady in a way that few would have predicted a few months ago.
For shippers, that means opportunity – but also complexity. The difference between a smooth supply chain and a costly headache often comes down to one thing: who you've got on your side.
At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate complexity – whether that's understanding why rates are easing while demand is growing, securing space on a tight lane, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go, on time and on budget.
Because when the market is stable on the surface but shifting underneath, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who knows what's really going on.
Ready to work with a logistics partner who actually understands the air freight market? Contact Xiamen AE Global today – and let's keep your supply chain moving, no matter what comes next.
