The US-Iran ceasefire announced earlier this April has sent a wave of relief through the global logistics industry, but anyone hoping for an immediate return to normal air freight rates is likely in for a wait.
According to data from Xeneta, air cargo spot rates on the South Asia to Europe corridor surged a staggering 105% during the conflict, with rates from Europe to the Middle East up 87%, South Asia to North America up 82%, and Southeast Asia to Europe up 72%. The disruption, which began in late February when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down, slashed global air cargo capacity by roughly 1%-far below the 5.5% growth the industry had been expecting for 2026.
The good news? The ceasefire is likely to bring some immediate downward pressure on rates. Falling jet fuel prices will help, and as Gulf carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways gradually resume normal flight operations, capacity should start trickling back into key Middle East corridors.
But here's the reality check:
Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, warns that a full return to pre-conflict capacity and pricing levels on Middle East-linked trades is still one to two months away. Even when it's deemed safe to fly, rebuilding the operational infrastructure takes time. Insurance companies may remain cautious about Middle East hubs, and airlines won't be in a hurry to slash rates given the ceasefire is only temporary and the geopolitical situation remains fragile.
Perhaps the bigger challenge lies in passenger confidence. Gulf carriers' air freight networks depend heavily on passenger revenue. If tourists stay away from the Middle East even after the ceasefire, airlines may cut network capacity-and that would directly impact cargo space.
How shippers are adapting
Some freight forwarders have gotten creative. Flexport, for instance, reported that clients who once moved electronics from Asia to Europe through Middle East hubs are now routing goods via Los Angeles-combining ocean and air to secure lower rates. It's not ideal, but it works. Others have no choice but to pay up. Long-term contract rates from Vietnam to Europe have nearly doubled to $6.27 per kilogram compared with pre-war levels, according to Flexport.
Why this matters for your supply chain-and how Xiamen AE Global can help
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been watching these developments closely. With a network of over 100 overseas agents and more than a decade of experience in the freight forwarding industry, we've seen our fair share of disruptions-from COVID-era capacity crunches to geopolitical flashpoints. This one is no different.
What sets us apart during times like this is simple:
Global reach, local expertise. Our extensive agent network means we can find alternative routings when traditional corridors become unreliable. Whether it's rerouting cargo through Southeast Asian hubs or tapping into China-Europe rail options, we don't wait for the market to fix itself-we work the problem.
Government-licensed and industry-approved. We're an IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC-approved company. That's not just alphabet soup-it means we have the compliance infrastructure and carrier relationships to move your goods quickly when others are scrambling.
Full-service flexibility. From airfreight and ocean freight to customs clearance, warehousing, and project cargo, we handle the whole picture. When rates are volatile, having a partner who can pivot between modes and routes is invaluable.
What you can do right now
If you're shipping from China to Europe, North America, or the Middle East, here's our advice: Don't wait for rates to bottom out. The ceasefire has created a window of opportunity, but it's a narrow one. Reach out to us for a real-time rate assessment and routing analysis. We'll give you straight answers-no fluff, no hidden fees, just practical solutions that keep your supply chain moving.
The bottom line
The US-Iran ceasefire is a step in the right direction, but the logistics market won't heal overnight. Rates will ease gradually over the coming weeks and months, not collapse all at once. In the meantime, having a freight partner with deep carrier relationships, alternative routing options, and boots-on-the-ground expertise across China is your best bet for navigating the uncertainty.
About Xiamen AE Global
Founded in 2018 and based in Xiamen, China, Xiamen AE Global SCM Co., Ltd. is a government-licensed freight forwarder backed by more than 10 years of industry experience. We specialize in airfreight, ocean freight, rail freight, customs clearance, warehousing, and project cargo, serving clients worldwide with professionalism, honesty, and a relentless focus on getting the job done.
Need a shipping solution that works in today's volatile market? Contact us today for a free consultation and rate quote.
