As we approach the final months of 2025, the global air cargo industry is holding its breath. The peak earning season is here, and freight forwarders' strategies and insights may reveal where the market is heading. If you're involved in logistics, understanding these dynamics isn't just academic-it could determine your supply chain's efficiency and cost-effectiveness through the critical holiday season.
The Current Market Pulse: Recovery Meets Uncertainty
The air cargo market is sending mixed signals as we enter the traditional peak season. On one hand, Cathay Cargo reported a 13% year-on-year increase in cargo carried during August 2025, with demand to the Americas remaining robust and significant growth in dangerous goods solutions, particularly lithium battery movements to Oceania. This growth reflects building peak season momentum that industry players hope will continue through the coming months.
However, beneath these positive numbers lies a more complex reality. The global average air cargo price showed modest improvement in June, rising 2% over the previous month, though it remained 1% below June 2024 levels. This inconsistency highlights the market's volatility, particularly as it adapts to unstable U.S. trade and tariff policies.
Regional Divergences: A Tale of Two Markets
One striking development in 2025 has been the widening gap between trade lanes. While volumes from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. dropped approximately 15% between March and June 2025 compared to pre-tariff levels, volumes to Europe reached their highest level this year in June, up 15% compared to June 2024.
Forwarders are closely monitoring these shifting patterns. C.H. Robinson reports that European markets are expected to remain strong, while U.S. growth may be more moderate due to trade tariffs and their impact on consumer sentiment. This divergence means that forwarders with flexible networks and diverse airline partnerships may navigate the peak season more successfully than those locked into specific trade lanes.
The Capacity Squeeze: Why Forwarders Hold the Cards
The fundamental challenge for the 2025 peak season is the growing imbalance between demand and capacity. While demand is projected to grow between 6-10% depending on the trade lane, capacity is only expected to increase by 4-5%. This gap creates conditions where freight rates can spike dramatically, particularly during peak demand periods.
Several factors are tightening capacity:
- Passenger belly capacity has largely recovered but isn't enough to offset overall constraints
- Freighter aircraft delivery delays are limiting dedicated cargo capacity
- Manufacturing diversification into Southeast Asian markets is redirecting capacity away from traditional routes
- Winter schedule reductions will further limit available space as airlines adjust to lower passenger demand
Forwarders with strong relationships and pre-secured capacity allocations may have a significant advantage during this peak season. As DHL Global Forwarding noted in their Air Freight State of the Industry report, "Shippers should plan for potential increases during peak times and allow for price variations, especially for time-sensitive or seasonal goods".
The E-commerce Wildcard
E-commerce continues to be a primary driver of air cargo demand, particularly from the Asia-Pacific region. By 2026, this region is expected to account for 80% of the $36 trillion B2B e-commerce market. However, forwarders are noticing a strategic shift among major e-commerce players from an air-centric model (90% air cargo) toward a 60%-40% mix of direct fulfillment and forward stocking.
This evolution means that forwarders offering integrated solutions-including warehousing, inventory management, and multimodal options-may better serve e-commerce clients during the peak season compared to those focused exclusively on air transportation.
Forwarder Strategies for Peak Season Success
Based on current market intelligence, successful forwarders are implementing several key strategies:
1. Prioritizing Agility and Diversification
In today's volatile environment, supply chain flexibility is paramount. Forwarders are helping clients ready their supply chains for partial relocation to regions that better match their needs. This includes developing contingency plans for shifting trade lanes and maintaining relationships with multiple carriers to avoid being locked into capacity-constrained options.
2. Advanced Planning and Booking
The lead times for securing capacity have extended significantly. Forwarders are now advising clients to book 6-7 days before the cargo ready date for air freight. For time-sensitive shipments during the peak season, some are recommending even longer lead times, particularly for larger consignments that require dedicated space.
3. Strategic Rate Management
With DHL predicting that "airfreight rates in the fourth quarter of 2025 may be generally stable but occasionally rise", forwarders are implementing more sophisticated pricing strategies. This includes blending spot rates with contractual commitments, using a mix of passenger and cargo capacity, and guiding clients toward less congested routes and airports.
4. Leveraging Technology for Visibility
The most advanced forwarders are using digital platforms to provide real-time cargo tracking and predictive analytics. During the peak season, when disruptions are more common, this visibility becomes increasingly valuable-allowing for quick adjustments to routing and helping manage client expectations.
Looking Ahead: Navigating the New Normal
The air cargo industry is facing a "new normal" characterized by persistent volatility, regional divergences, and capacity constraints. The peak 2025 earning season will test how well forwarders have adapted to these conditions.
Those who successfully guide clients through this complex landscape will likely gain long-term loyalty and market share. As Lavinia Lau of Cathay Group noted, "We expect momentum to continue as the traditional air cargo peak begins, spurred by new high-tech product launches". Forwarders who can secure capacity for these high-value launches while managing general cargo demands will be particularly well-positioned.
For shippers, the message is clear: partner closely with your forwarder during this critical period. Their hints, strategies, and market intelligence may make the difference between meeting your holiday season commitments or facing costly delays and capacity shortages.
As we watch the 2025 peak season unfold, one thing is certain: the forwarders who provide the most value will be those with the deepest market insights, the strongest carrier relationships, and the most flexible solutions. Keep your eyes on them-they hold the clues to what's coming next in air cargo.
