If you've been in the shipping game long enough, you know the rhythm: Chinese New Year hits, factories go quiet, and then there's the usual mad scramble of catch-up shipments as work resumes. But this year feels... different. We're a couple of weeks past the holiday, and the expected surge in transpacific demand just isn't materializing the way it usually does.
To put it bluntly, the market is soft. And a lot of us in the industry are scratching our heads, watching carriers continue to add capacity even as the cargo isn't there to fill it. Let's break down what's actually happening and, more importantly, what it means for your supply chain.
The Great Capacity Gamble
You'd think that with demand looking wobbly, shipping lines would be slamming the brakes on capacity. Instead, we're seeing the opposite. Despite a reported 7.5% year-on-year drop in transpacific volumes recently, carriers are still launching new services .
Take the new PS8/AP2 service from ONE and Wan Hai, set to launch in May. It's adding another 12,000 TEUs per week to a trade lane that already has around 5.46 million TEU of capacity floating around . It feels like a game of musical chairs where the music has slowed down, but someone just brought in more chairs.
Why? Part of it is the lingering effect of last year's front-loading. Shippers, spooked by potential disruptions and tariff uncertainty, pulled orders forward late last year. That borrowed demand from 2026, leaving the warehouse racks a little fuller and the order books a little emptier now .
The Numbers Don't Lie: A Shippers' Market?
The result is plain to see in the rate indexes. Spot rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast have softened, dipping to around $2,214 per FEU, with the East Coast not far behind at $2,800 . Analysts at Xeneta put it bluntly: the pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush is behind us, and with capacity growth outpacing demand, the market is tilting in favor of shippers .
This creates a weird paradox. On paper, lower rates sound great. But this kind of volatility is tricky. It makes long-term budgeting a nightmare. Are today's low rates a new baseline, or will lines blank-sail their way to a sudden spike next month? It feels like the "new normal" is just constant unpredictability .
So, What's a Smart Shipper to Do?
This is exactly the kind of market where having a partner who isn't just a "booker" matters. At Xiamen AE Global, we've seen these cycles before. Our team, backed by over a decade of experience, knows that a soft market doesn't mean a risk-free market. It just means the risks are different.
Here's how we're helping our clients turn this post-CNY haze into an opportunity:
- Don't Just Chase the Lowest Rate: It's tempting to jump on the first cheap quote you see. But as we always say, a rate is just a number until the cargo is delivered. With so much capacity floating around, some less-scrupulous operators might quote low and then hit you with surprise destination charges. Our commitment to transparent, all-in quotes means you know your landed cost upfront-no games .
- Let Our Network Work for You: This market uncertainty is precisely why we've invested in our network of over 100 overseas agents. When one route gets congested or a rate spikes due to a sudden blank sailing, we have the eyes and ears on the ground to pivot. Whether it's finding an alternative transshipment port or leveraging our strong relationships with carriers, we build resilience into your route, not just a route.
- Rethink Your Inventory Strategy: With demand muted, the pressure to hold massive inventory just to keep up with sales eases a bit. This could be the perfect time to test different shipping modes. Maybe that less-than-urgent restock goes via our consolidated sea freight to save dollars, while best-sellers fly via our air cargo options to keep turnover high. We help you find that balance.
The Bottom Line
Yes, the post-CNY transpacific market is looking a little sleepy. And yes, the mix of weak demand and increasing capacity creates a weird landscape. But for us at Xiamen AE Global, it's just another puzzle to solve for our clients.
As a government-licensed and IATA/FIATA-approved forwarder, we're not just here to move boxes. We're here to navigate the gray areas. So, if you're looking at the current market and feeling unsure whether to book now or wait, reach out. Let's look at your specific cargo, your timeline, and build a plan that turns this soft patch into a strategic win for your business.
