The traditional air cargo surge is a no-show, but rates are climbing anyway. Here's what's really happening in the global airfreight market.
Remember the days of predictable Q4 peak season chaos? They seem to be over. While average spot rates on key Asia-Europe and transpacific trades are climbing, the market isn't expecting a traditional peak season surge in the final quarter of 2025.
This paradox defines today's air cargo landscape, where prices respond not to seasonal demand spikes but to a complex mix of capacity management, geopolitical pressures, and shifting trade patterns.
The Numbers Behind the Climb
The rate increases are real and significant. In just a fortnight, average spot rates from Chinese forwarders to Europe have jumped by more than 13% during October's second half.
Similar pressures are building on transpacific routes, though the underlying market dynamics differ substantially between trade lanes.
This upward movement comes despite the absence of robust consumer demand that typically characterizes the approach to the holiday season. The conventional peak season, it appears, is transforming into something entirely new-a "peak-less Q4" where volatility replaces predictability.
What's Really Fueling the Rate Increases?
1. Strategic Capacity Reduction
Airlines and cargo carriers have learned hard lessons from past overcapacity situations. In the current market, they're proactively managing capacity through carefully implemented blanked sailings (cancelled voyages) and more disciplined capacity deployment.
On transpacific routes, carriers have increased blanked sailings throughout October, keeping offered capacity slightly below September levels. This artificial tightness creates upward pressure on rates even without surging demand.
2. The Trump Administration's Tariff Impact
The trade policy environment continues to shape logistics flows. While the previous administration granted 90-day grace periods for reciprocal tariffs, the underlying uncertainty continues to distort shipping patterns.
Tariff-driven inflation pressures are building throughout the supply chain, with core PCE possibly exceeding 3% in 2025. As companies begin passing tariff-related costs to consumers, the entire logistics ecosystem adapts to new trade realities.
The political pressure on Federal Reserve independence further complicates matters, with markets interpreting this interference as inflationary-potentially pushing long-end yields higher and affecting currency valuations.
3. Shifting Trade Lanes
Not all routes are experiencing the same pressures. While Asia-Europe sees steady growth, volumes from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. have declined approximately 15% since pre-tariff March levels.
Meanwhile, shipments from Asia-Pacific (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the U.S. have grown 13% during the same period, suggesting significant supply chain restructuring is underway.
The divergence between U.S. and European market dynamics has become particularly pronounced in the second quarter, directly responding to rapidly changing U.S. trade and tariff policies.
The New Market Normal: Volatility Without Seasonality
The traditional peak season model-with predictable Q4 demand surges-has fractured. What's emerging instead is a market characterized by:
- Political and policy-driven disruptions replacing seasonal demand patterns
- More reactive capacity management from carriers
- Persistent inflationary pressures throughout the supply chain
- Trade lane fluidity as shippers constantly re-optimize routes
Global economic forecasts suggest continued uncertainty. Growth in the United States and East Asia is likely to slow over the next several months before any potential policy stimulus drives a rebound in early 2026.
The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its "insurance cuts" strategy-easing rates to cushion the economy without signaling panic. This delicate balancing act reflects the fragile state of market confidence.
Practical Implications for Shippers
For logistics professionals navigating this new environment, several strategies are becoming essential:
- Diversify trade lanes: Don't over-rely on single corridors. The shift from China to other Asian manufacturing hubs appears structural rather than temporary.
- Embrace flexibility: The ability to pivot between sea and air, or between different air corridors, provides crucial leverage in rate negotiations.
- Monitor capacity indicators: Blanked sailings and equipment shortages often provide early warning of rate movements. The 33.4% mid-October surge in Far East to US West Coast ocean rates parallels similar though less dramatic air cargo patterns.
- Build stronger carrier relationships: In volatile markets, transactional relationships become costly. Partners with assured capacity access provide significant value.
Looking Beyond Q4
The broader economic context suggests these patterns may persist into 2026. The artificial tightness created by capacity discipline, combined with ongoing trade policy uncertainty, points to continued rate volatility without clear seasonal patterns.
As one analysis notes, "The market is beginning to adjust to a 'new reality' where inflation may consistently run above 2%, and that has implications for everything from product pricing to consumer behavior".
For air cargo stakeholders, this means abandoning outdated seasonal planning models and building more resilient, intelligence-driven logistics operations capable of responding to political and economic signals rather than just traditional demand cycles.
The peak season as we knew it may be gone, but in its place is a market that rewards agility, intelligence, and strategic partnerships over simple seasonal forecasting.
