The latest air cargo figures from Europe's busiest gateways tell a stark story: shipments moving between Europe and the Middle East have taken a massive hit. At Amsterdam Schiphol, outbound volumes to the Middle East plunged 50.1% year-over-year in March, dropping to just 5,609 tonnes. Inbound volumes followed a similar pattern, falling 47% to 6,329 tonnes.
Frankfurt Airport tells the same story-capacity on flights from Frankfurt to the Middle East slumped 51.5%, with overall Middle East traffic down 44.3% year-over-year. London Heathrow saw combined inbound and outbound Middle East traffic fall 54.3% in March.
So what's going on?
The Perfect Storm in Gulf Airspace
Since late February, escalating military conflict in the Middle East has turned one of the world's busiest aviation corridors into a high-risk zone. Airspace closures across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and parts of the UAE triggered over 2,100 flight cancellations within a single day, slashing global air freight capacity by an estimated 18%. The impact on major Gulf carriers has been devastating: Emirates SkyCargo is operating at roughly 60% of its normal schedule, Etihad at around 40%, and Qatar Airways Cargo at just 20%. Before the conflict, Gulf carriers collectively handled about 13% of global air cargo capacity-roughly 25,000 tonnes daily. That capacity has largely evaporated.
The ripple effects are being felt across global supply chains. According to consultancy Aevean, air freight capacity on the Asia–Middle East–Europe corridor has fallen 39% since the conflict began. Direct capacity between China and Europe has actually increased by 26% as airlines scramble to bypass the troubled Gulf region, but that shift comes with its own set of challenges.
Higher Prices, Fewer Options
With capacity tightening, rates have soared. Spot rates from Dubai to Europe have tripled year-over-year to $5.44 per kilogram, while South Asia to Europe rates climbed 62% compared to pre-conflict levels. Europe to Middle East rates have effectively doubled. The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since late February, adding another layer of cost pressure to an already strained system.
For shippers who rely on predictable transit times and stable costs, this is a nightmare scenario. Time-sensitive cargo-fresh produce, pharmaceuticals, electronics, automotive parts-is particularly vulnerable. With traditional Gulf hubs like Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi operating well below capacity, what used to be a routine stopover has become a chokepoint.
The Search for Alternatives
Some cargo is finding its way through alternative gateways like Riyadh and Muscat, supported by additional trucking. Other shippers are rerouting via Istanbul, Athens or Cairo-but these hubs are now seeing congestion of their own. There's even talk of moving Asia-to-Europe cargo via Los Angeles, combining ocean and air transport in a desperate attempt to bypass the Middle East entirely.
But these workarounds come with trade-offs. Flights forced to reroute via southern Saudi airspace face a 15% increase in distance and 1.6 additional block hours, adding approximately $0.22 per kilogram in incremental costs. When you're shipping high-value goods across continents, those extra hours and dollars add up fast.
What This Means for Shippers
If you're moving freight between Europe and the Middle East-or worse, relying on Gulf hubs to connect Asia to Europe-you're probably feeling the squeeze. Capacity is tight, rates are high, and traditional routing options are no longer reliable.
That's where having the right logistics partner makes all the difference.
At XMAE Logistics, we don't wait for the headlines to tell us something's wrong. We monitor market conditions in real time, adapting our routing strategies to keep your shipments moving. Our multimodal approach-seamlessly integrating air, ocean and road freight-gives us the flexibility to find alternatives when traditional lanes close up.
Need urgent delivery? Our Fast Forward Courier service prioritizes your shipment from pickup to delivery, with dedicated personnel managing every step of the journey. Whether it's high-value electronics, temperature-controlled pharmaceuticals, or just-in-time automotive parts, we secure the best possible routing and expedite customs clearance to shave off critical days-or even hours.
And with real-time tracking across every shipment, you'll never be left guessing where your cargo is.
Looking Ahead
The Middle East crisis isn't going away anytime soon. While some capacity is slowly returning-Abu Dhabi has recovered to 66% of pre-conflict levels, Dubai to 50%-Doha remains at just 17%, and Kuwait and Bahrain are effectively at zero. The operating environment remains volatile, with rapid adjustments and demanding market conditions expected to shape the rest of 2026.
For shippers, the message is clear: relying on outdated routing assumptions is a gamble you can't afford to take. The networks that worked six months ago may not work today. The key is agility-and that's exactly what XMAE Logistics delivers.
Ready to rethink your air cargo strategy? [Contact XMAE Logistics today] for a customized routing assessment. Let's find a better way to move your freight.
