If you ship goods internationally, you've felt the turbulence. The past year has been a whirlwind of sudden tariff announcements, shipping alliances breaking up and reforming, and congested ports from Shanghai to Rotterdam.
So, where does that leave us as we move forward? A fragile balance is emerging. Let's break down the three major forces shaping this "tenuous stability" in ocean freight and what it means for your supply chain.
1. The Reshuffled Deck: Shipping Alliances Find a New Normal
2025 began with the biggest shake-up in shipping alliances in years. The 2M alliance between MSC and Maersk officially dissolved . In its place, a new landscape emerged:
- MSC is now operating largely independently, though with strategic slot agreements on key routes .
- Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd formed the new "Gemini Cooperation," aiming for over 90% schedule reliability with a hub-and-spoke network .
- THE Alliance (ONE, YML, HMM) and the Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen) adjusted their services and extended agreements, leading to significant changes in vessel deployment, especially on transatlantic routes .
The immediate impact? Short-term chaos. The first quarter of 2025 saw schedule reliability drop, blank sailings increase, and some direct services turn into indirect routes, extending transit times . While the new alliance structures are now bedding in, their long-term effect will be a network with fewer direct port calls and consistently longer overall shipping times .
2. Trade Policy Whiplash: Tariffs and Port Fees Reshape Global Routes
Trade policy is no longer a background factor; it's a direct driver of shipping costs and routing decisions.
- The U.S.-China Tariff Effect: The announcement of new tariffs in April 2025 caused a seismic shift in volumes. U.S. imports from China plummeted-by some estimates as much as 64% in the immediate aftermath . This demand shock forced ocean carriers to implement massive blank sailing programs, cutting capacity from Asia to the U.S. West Coast by ~30% and to the East Coast by ~40% at one point .
- The Ripple Effect: As imports from China fell, demand from Southeast Asia and India remained stable, creating new hotspots and capacity challenges on those lanes . This demonstrates a rapid diversification of supply chains, but it also spreads volatility across different regions.
- New Costs on the Horizon: Adding another layer of complexity, the U.S. is moving forward with a new fee structure for Chinese-built vessels and China-owned carriers, set to take effect after a 180-day grace period . This will add a new cost component to certain voyages, which carriers will likely pass on.
This policy-driven environment has created a "tactical" shipping mindset. Companies are only booking mission-critical volumes or front-loading shipments to beat potential tariff windows, making demand patterns highly unpredictable .
3. The "Tenuous Stability" – A Delicate Balance of Capacity and Cost
So, where is the stability? It's being artificially managed. Carriers are engaged in a delicate dance, carefully controlling capacity to prevent freight rates from collapsing in the face of subdued global demand.
Carriers are deliberately reducing the number of ships on major routes. Data from early November 2025 shows that offered capacity from the Far East to North Europe was down 11.9% compared to a month prior, and down on other major trades as well . This strategic capacity management is the primary reason spot rates saw a significant jump at the start of November .
As Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand explains, "Clearly, carriers are managing capacity very carefully at an important time of year ahead of 2026 contract tenders... Carriers will be pleased with their work of late, but they are battling subdued demand no matter how well they manage capacity."
This is the "tenuous" part. The current stability in rates is not built on robust demand growth but on carriers' disciplined withdrawal of capacity. If that discipline falters, or if demand softens further, rates could quickly fall back.
What This Means for Your Shipping Strategy
In this environment, a proactive and flexible approach is your greatest asset.
- Diversify Your Options: Don't rely on a single lane or carrier. The restructuring of alliances means your old, reliable carrier might no longer be the best fit for your new routes from Southeast Asia or India .
- Plan Further Ahead: With carriers blanking sailings to manage capacity, space is tighter than it appears. Booking 3-4 weeks in advance is becoming the new norm to secure both space and predictable transit times .
- Build in a Buffer: Port congestion remains a persistent issue from Latin America to the Mediterranean, and vessel schedules are still prone to disruption . Build realistic buffer times into your logistics plans to mitigate the impact of delays.
- Stay Agile on Trade Policy: Keep a close watch on trade policy developments. Having contingency plans and alternative routing options (like A/B routings) will help you avoid getting caught off-guard by sudden tariff changes or new fees .
The Road Ahead
The UNCTAD's forecast that global maritime trade will grow by only 0.5% in 2025 underscores the fragile foundation of the current market . We are navigating a new normal defined by geopolitical shifts, strategic capacity management, and persistent operational disruptions.
The stability we're seeing is hard-won and easily lost. Success will belong to shippers who are as strategic and adaptable as the carriers they work with.
Need help navigating the new landscape of ocean freight? Our experts analyze these dynamics daily to build resilient and cost-effective shipping strategies for our clients. Contact XMAE Logistics today for a consultation.
