Container volumes are picking up faster than expected. Here's what freight forwarders need to know right now.
Evergreen Marine's first-quarter numbers don't exactly scream "thriving." The carrier posted operating revenue of NT86.56billion(around86.56billion(around2.74 billion) for Q1 2026, a 21% drop from the same period last year. Average freight rates fell 22% to $959 per TEU.
But here's the twist-cargo volumes actually ticked up 1.58%, reaching 2.64 million TEU. And if you listen to Evergreen's management, the story for the rest of the year is shaping up very differently.
At the company's April 24 investor conference, General Manager Wu Kuang Hui laid out a surprisingly bullish outlook. The reason? Middle East hostilities that kicked off on February 28 have completely rewritten the usual seasonal playbook.
"Transpacific cargo volumes were relatively weak in Q1 due to US-China trade tensions," Wu explained. "However, increased supply chain uncertainty has led shippers to stock up earlier, driving a rebound in cargo volumes expected in Q2, potentially bringing the peak season forward."
In plain English: shippers aren't waiting around. Geopolitical hot spots in the Persian Gulf, lingering tariff uncertainty, and concerns over port congestion are pushing importers to move their cargo earlier than usual. Evergreen is openly optimistic about Q2 and Q3 performance-and expects rates to start climbing again by mid-May.
What's driving the early peak season?
Three factors are converging to pull logistics timelines forward this year. First, fuel costs have jumped roughly 60% since late February, giving carriers real leverage to push through rate increases. Second, the Suez Canal remains uncertain, keeping vessels on longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, which tightens global vessel capacity. Third, shippers are front-loading inventory to hedge against both tariff hikes and potential supply chain disruptions.
Already, several carriers have signaled plans to impose a $2,000 per FEU general rate increase on transpacific routes, with more expected to follow. That's a meaningful swing from the softer pricing environment that dominated early 2026.
Evergreen is also in a stronger position than many of its rivals. The carrier has the industry's highest proportion of scrubber-fitted vessels-around 150 ships, or 72% of its owned fleet. That lets it burn cheaper high-sulfur fuel oil while others pay a premium for low-sulfur alternatives. When bunker prices climb, that advantage adds up fast.
What this means for freight forwarders and shippers
For anyone moving cargo out of China right now, the message is straightforward: don't assume the summer lull is still coming. Traditional peak season windows are blurring, and capacity on major east-west trade lanes could tighten weeks earlier than expected. Shippers who wait until August or September may find themselves competing for limited vessel space at peak surcharge rates.
But an early peak also creates opportunities. For freight forwarders who can offer real flexibility-multi-modal options, real-time visibility, and reliable carrier relationships-this is the moment to prove value to clients who are anxious about delays and cost blowouts.
How AE Global keeps your supply chain moving
At Xiamen AE Global SCM, we've been watching these market shifts closely. The landscape heading into mid-2026 is more volatile than usual-but that's exactly when experience and relationships matter most.
We hold government licenses and IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC approvals-credentials that guarantee strict compliance and high operational standards in cross-border trade. With over 100 overseas agents across our global network, we can move your goods by sea, air, or rail, whichever best balances cost and delivery speed.
Our door-to-door sea freight service handles the entire journey from Chinese ports to final destination, eliminating handoff headaches. And for shippers who need complete cost predictability, our DDU/DDP air freight services cover everything from export clearance to final delivery-critical when tariffs and surcharges are shifting week by week.
Whether you're rushing to beat an early peak season surge or simply looking for a logistics partner who actually answers the phone when things get complicated, AE Global is here to help. Run your lane, tell us your timeline, and we'll deliver a shipping plan that makes sense for your bottom line.
