Global air cargo markets have once again proven their resilience, growing 4% year-on-year despite facing enough challenges to ground lesser industries.
In an era of government shutdowns, escalating tariffs, and operational disruptions, the air cargo industry isn't just surviving-it's finding ways to thrive. While headlines focus on trade tensions and capacity cuts, beneath the surface lies a more compelling story of adaptation and strategic repositioning.
Global air cargo volume growth slowed in October but still recorded a stronger-than-expected 4% rise year-on-year, despite the easing of frontloading of imports by businesses countering the cost of tariffs and effects of the US de minimis ban.
This growth defies the constant drumbeat of challenges, from the US FAA's decision to cut flights at major airports to ongoing trade policy uncertainties. The industry's resilience stems from fundamental shifts in trade patterns, digital transformation, and strategic market diversification that collectively strengthen its foundations.
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
Beneath the surface of that encouraging 4% global growth figure lies a complex story of shifting trade lanes and recalibrating markets. October saw a sixth consecutive monthly fall in global air cargo spot rates, declining 3% year-on-year to $2.58 per kg. Even more telling, seasonal contract rates fell faster than spot prices, down 8% year-on-year to an average of $2.31 per kg.
The Transatlantic market, traditionally a reliable trade corridor, revealed what Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw calls a "harsh signal"-volumes fell 6% year-on-year in October. This slowdown in a corridor dominated by general air cargo and less exposed to US trade restrictions may be what van de Wouw describes as a "bellwether for the rest of global trade".
The market is "definitely starting to favour shippers more than it has for the past few years," according to van de Wouw, reflecting a significant power shift after years of carrier-friendly conditions.
E-Commerce: The Great Rebalancing Act
Perhaps no segment better illustrates the industry's adaptability than e-commerce, which is simultaneously experiencing dramatic growth and rebalancing across trade lanes.
China-to-Europe e-commerce shipments surged by 62% year-on-year in September, double the growth rate of a year ago and far outpacing China's overall e-commerce expansion of 18%. This explosion in volume comes as China's e-commerce behemoths accelerate their share of markets outside the US.
Meanwhile, in a striking contrast, China-to-US e-commerce shipments fell for the fifth straight month, down 34% year-on-year in September, though the decline moderated from a trough of -49% in June. This rebalancing illustrates how quickly trade flows adapt to policy changes, including the end of duty-free de minimis shipping for Chinese goods.
Strategic Pivots: How Air Cargo Is Reinventing Itself
The Capacity Correction
Airlines have demonstrated remarkable agility in managing capacity amid fluctuating demand. International air freight markets underwent "extensive capacity rationalization" as carriers adjusted to new demand levels after the tariff-related inventory buildup subsided.
This adjustment was particularly evident in markets that had seen temporary capacity shortages earlier in the year due to tariff-driven stockpiling. Carriers responded with flight cancellations and route diversions to fill remaining services and maintain profitability.
The Southeast Asian Opportunity
The China+1 strategy has emerged as a significant driver of cargo flow reconfiguration, with Southeast Asia experiencing increased cargo volumes and creating greater demand for more resilient, flexible logistics solutions.
"As recent global developments, including the China+1 strategy, more businesses are set to include the Southeast Asian region as an increasingly important piece of their global logistics plans," notes Joachim Hanssen, CEO APAC of Rhenus Air & Ocean.
This strategic shift is reflected in the numbers: trade between China and ASEAN totaled 3.67 trillion yuan, a 9.6% year-on-year increase, compared to a 9.3% decrease in China's trade with the United States.
The Digital Transformation
Underpinning the industry's physical adaptability is a quiet digital revolution. ONE Record, International Air Transport Association's initiative for air cargo数字化转型, is gaining traction as a key solution. Through unified data exchange standards, it "significantly improves supply chain visibility and transparency, reduces paper documents and data re-entry, and enhances operational efficiency and data accuracy,".
In North Asia alone, 9 major Chinese cargo airlines, 10 major airports, 5 IT service providers, and over 10 logistics companies are participating in ONE Record pilot programs. This digital foundation enables the industry to navigate complex logistics landscapes with greater agility, reliability, and precision.
Regional Spotlights: Adaptation in Action
Asia's Strategic Repositioning
The dramatic demand drop from China to the US-coupled with Southeast Asia's rising importance-has prompted carriers to divert capacity from China toward Southeast Asia. This reallocation reflects a broader strategic pivot toward alternative trade routes and emerging markets that reinforce the sector's stability amid global uncertainty.
Europe's Balancing Act
European air cargo has benefited from summer schedule implementations, with increased passenger frequencies during the tourist season providing additional belly capacity. This seasonal capacity increase, combined with demand normalization after tariff-related frontloading, has created more balanced market conditions across most European routes.
South America's Trade Disruption
The implementation of 50% US import tariffs on Brazilian products in August 2025 caused "immediate disruption to key industries," with agricultural foods, steel, coffee, citrus, and aerospace sectors seeing cancellations or postponements of air shipments. This demonstrates how quickly trade policies can reshape air cargo flows, creating sudden capacity surpluses on previously stable routes.
The Road Ahead: More Focus on Cost as Revenues Disappoint
As the industry moves deeper into the final quarter of 2025, forwarders are expected to place "more focus on cost savings, because revenues will disappoint," according to van de Wouw. This cost-conscious approach comes as the Transatlantic corridor is expected to see only modest, supply-driven rate increases in the coming months as airlines trim capacity for the winter season.
The air cargo sector continues to demonstrate what Sunil Arora, CEO of One World One Network, describes as "remarkable resilience through innovation, diversification, and strong logistics networks amid global trade uncertainties".
This resilience stems not from resisting change, but from embracing adaptation as a core competency-whether through technological advancement, market diversification, or operational flexibility.
Conclusion: The Adaptation Advantage
The air cargo industry's story in 2025 isn't about avoiding challenges-it's about developing a proven capacity to transform obstacles into opportunities. While individual trade lanes may fluctuate and spot rates may rise and fall, the underlying strength of global air cargo lies in its networked flexibility and digital transformation.
As 2025 progresses, the industry's resilience ensures it remains what Arora characterizes as "more than transportation; it is a lifeline connecting businesses, markets, and people worldwide".
In the face of shutdowns, tariffs, and operational disruptions, air cargo hasn't just endured-it has evolved, reaffirming its indispensable role in global commerce through what might indeed be remembered as a 'very good year' for its demonstration of strategic adaptability.
