If you've been watching transpacific freight rates lately, you've probably noticed something unusual. The peak season that was supposed to cool off in July? It's still going strong.
According to Freightos, the rush to get cargo out of China is keeping the transpacific peak alive well beyond what most analysts expected. And the numbers tell a compelling story.
The numbers are staggering
Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast have climbed roughly 120% since mid-May, hitting around $6,200 per FEU. East Coast rates? They're sitting at about $9,000 per FEU – and have been stable at that peak level since early July. In fact, Asia-U.S. East Coast spot rates recently touched $9,144 per FEU, marking a new high for the year.
But here's the really interesting part: Freightos head of research Judah Levine noted that West Coast daily rates recently jumped back above $7,000/FEU on August 1 general rate increases, after having eased about 20% from their early July peak. That bounce-back suggests the peak season strength is lasting longer than many had anticipated.
What's driving this extended rush?
Several factors are at play – and they're not all about simple demand.
First, there's the tariff factor. Shippers had been frontloading peak season volumes ahead of the July 24 Section 122 tariff expiration date, worried that duties could climb higher. When Section 122 was replaced by Section 301 tariffs at roughly the same levels, the anticipated relief never materialised – and some shippers kept right on frontloading.
Then there's the fuel cost angle. Carriers announced July Bunker Adjustment Factor surcharge hikes, and shippers rushed to get ahead of those increases. Manufacturer price increases added another layer of urgency.
And as Levine pointed out, delays at congested ports could mean this volume strength stretches on longer than many shippers would prefer.
But wait – there's more
The transpacific story is now diverging sharply from other trades. While Asia-Europe rates have been sliding for six consecutive weeks, the transpacific is holding firm – and in some cases, still climbing.
Why? Part of it is the Panama Canal. The canal authority announced further restrictions on vessel transits starting September 3, reducing daily slots from a normal average of 34 to just nine at the Neopanamax locks. One carrier recently paid $4.6 million for a single auction slot – way up from the daily post-war average of $385,000. With at least 112 vessels already waiting to enter the canal and delays of up to 10 days expected, shippers are rushing to beat the restrictions.
Then there's the congestion at Chinese ports. Some carriers are now skipping Shanghai port calls altogether as congestion remains severe, with multi-day delays also reported in Ningbo, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. That's tightening capacity and keeping upward pressure on rates.
The National Retail Federation had estimated that August demand would be well below July levels. But steady East Coast rates, combined with forwarder reports of surprisingly strong demand and the recent West Coast rate bump, suggest otherwise. Some analysts point to unexpectedly low inventory levels and stronger-than-anticipated consumer demand.
What this means for your supply chain
Here's the reality: when the peak season refuses to quit – when tariffs, fuel costs, port congestion and canal restrictions are all converging at once – the market becomes a difficult place to navigate.
Space is tight. Rates are high. And the traditional rules of thumb about when to book and when to wait no longer apply.
This is where experience pays off
Markets like this separate the forwarders who just move boxes from the ones who actually protect your supply chain.
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been navigating exactly this kind of complexity since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials – which means when the market goes sideways, we have the global network and the carrier relationships to secure space for our clients, even when everyone else is scrambling.
1. Real relationships, real leverage
With over 100 overseas agents worldwide, we don't just watch the rate indices from a distance. We work directly with our partners on the ground to understand what's really happening with capacity and pricing on each trade lane. When carriers announce GRIs or PSSs, we know about it – and we negotiate from a position of strength.
2. Technology that cuts through the noise
We've invested heavily in technology that gives our clients real visibility – not just a tracking number, but actual insight into what's happening with rates, capacity, and alternatives. When the market shifts, we don't wait for you to find out the hard way. We alert you immediately and present options.
3. Local knowledge, global reach
Based in Xiamen – one of Asia's busiest port cities – we combine the global reach of an IATA and FIATA-approved forwarder with the local knowledge of a partner who's been shipping all kinds of goods for over a decade. We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients. That's not luck – it's relentless execution and a network that doesn't fall apart when the market gets complicated.
The bottom line
The transpacific peak season isn't behaving the way it's supposed to. It started early, it's lasting longer than expected, and the usual signals that it's winding down just aren't there yet.
For shippers, that means one thing: you need a logistics partner who understands the ground reality, has the relationships to secure competitive rates, and can pivot fast when things change.
At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate complexity – whether that's finding space on a tight trade lane, securing competitive rates in a rising market, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go, on time and on budget.
Because when the peak season won't quit, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who knows how to keep your cargo moving.
Ready to navigate the transpacific peak season with a partner who's got your back? Contact Xiamen AE Global today – and let's keep your supply chain moving, no matter how long this peak season lasts.
