The air cargo market's playing musical chairs again. After two years of soaring rates and scarce space, we're seeing a clear pivot: airfreight capacity is shifting away from the US as demand cools. At XMAE Logistics, we're tracking what this rebalance means for your shipments-and where opportunities still exist.
Why US Air Cargo Demand Is Softening
Three factors are driving the slide:
- Inventories are full. Retailers over-ordered post-pandemic and are now sitting on stock.
- Consumers are spending less. Inflation's squeezing wallets, slowing e-commerce and big-ticket imports.
- Ocean freight reliability improved. With fewer port snarls, some shippers switched back to cheaper sea routes.
The numbers don't lie: Trans-Pacific air cargo demand fell 15% YoY in Q1 2025 (IATA data). Airlines aren't flying empty bellies.
How Airlines Are Reacting: Capacity Pullbacks & New Priorities
Carriers are swiftly reallocating assets:
- Freighter flights from LAX/ORD are getting cut, especially to secondary Asian hubs.
- Passenger airlines are parking wide-body jets on US routes, reducing belly space.
- Capacity's shifting toward growing EU-Asia and Middle East-India lanes where demand still climbs.
- Smaller freighters (like 737-800s) are replacing 747s on key US routes-less capacity, more frequency.
Translation: If you're shipping from China to Chicago, space is easier (and cheaper) to find than in 2023. But flexibility matters more than ever.
What Shippers Should Do Right Now
This isn't 2022's market. Here's how to adapt:
✅ Lock in medium-term contracts – Spot rates are down, but volatility lingers.
✅ Consider regional hubs – Flying into SEA/DFW instead of LAX? Might save 3 days and 12% on drayage.
✅ Blend modes – Pair air with expedited LCL or rail for cost-sensitive cargo.
✅ Watch Q4 early – Peak season capacity crunches will still hit select lanes.
The Bottom Line
The airfreight pendulum's swinging back toward shippers. With US capacity tightening strategically-not collapsing-smart logistics partners can turn this shift into faster transit times and lower costs.
Need a reality check on your air routes? XMAE's team analyzes lane-level capacity trends daily. [Get optimized airfreight solutions here]
