In the face of a prolonged freight recession that has stretched nearly three years, a surprising trend is emerging across North America's trucking industry: resilience. While spot rates have remained depressed since spring 2022 and volumes continue to show weakness, carrier confidence is curiously on the rise .
According to a recent Q3 2025 survey of owner-operators and small fleets conducted by Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence, the industry is demonstrating remarkable fortitude. The data reveals that 80% of carriers expect freight demand to either grow or stay the same over the next six months, with 60% reporting current load volumes holding steady or increasing compared to last year .
The Rate Recovery Lag
The disconnect between volume stability and rate recovery presents the central paradox of today's market. While carriers report steady volumes, rate improvement continues to lag. Only 37% of carriers expect rates to improve in the next six months, down significantly from 55% earlier this year .
The statistics tell a story of an industry under pressure: spot rates have lingered below $2 per mile since spring 2022, creating what Jonathan Starks, CEO of freight forecasting firm FTR, describes as an environment where "transportation has been exceptionally impacted and will continue to remain in flux until at least the end of the year" .
Despite these challenges, carriers are finding ways to maintain business viability. The survey found that 15% of carriers actually reported year-over-year revenue growth, while another 42% said their revenue remained steady .
Cautious Investments Signal Growing Confidence
In what may be the clearest signal of growing carrier confidence, nearly one in three (29%) now plan to buy new tractors or trailers in the next six months. This represents a significant increase from 21% in the previous quarter, suggesting that many operators "believe the bottom may be near in terms of volumes, and are cautiously preparing for better days ahead, despite ongoing pessimism on rate recovery" .
This cautious optimism is echoed by fleet executives in recent earnings calls. Alain Bédard, Chairman, President and CEO of TFI International, struck an unexpectedly upbeat note about 2026 prospects, stating, "We feel way, way, way better about '26 than what we went through about 2025. I think that finally, the sun is going to start coming up in '26" .
Policy Concerns and Market Adaptation
Carriers are navigating more than just market forces. On the policy front, 69% believe tariffs will harm the trucking industry, up slightly from the previous quarter . The industry is also grappling with the new federal enforcement of English-language proficiency rules, with 79% expecting it to affect trucking and 41% believing the impact will be significant .
The operational challenges are particularly acute for smaller carriers. As noted in the survey, "The industry's current conditions are testing every business, especially small fleets. But carriers are adapting and showing resiliency" .
This adaptation is evident in how carriers are approaching the current market. Many are tightening 2025 budgets while planning strategic rate hikes, aiming to offset costs and position themselves for the next freight upcycle .
Beyond the Numbers: A Resilient Mindset
Perhaps the most telling statistic comes from carrier retention and satisfaction data. Despite the ongoing challenges, fewer than one in ten carriers are considering leaving the industry-a figure that's held steady since Q1 . Even more remarkably, job satisfaction has actually increased, with 60% of carriers now saying they're satisfied with their work, up from 54% last quarter .
This resilience in the face of adversity speaks to the fundamental strength of the industry. As Todd Markusic, Customer Insights Manager at Truckstop.com, observed, "Many believe the bottom may be near in terms of volumes, and are cautiously preparing for better days ahead, despite ongoing pessimism on rate recovery" .
Looking Forward
The path to full recovery remains uncertain, with peak season demand failing to materialize as hoped. As Darrell Campbell, CFO of Schneider National, noted, "We believe there was some degree of pull-forward in the third quarter, which could drive an earlier end to peak season than is typical" .
Yet the industry continues to move forward, demonstrating the resilience that has long characterized the trucking sector. With carriers showing increased willingness to invest in equipment and maintaining generally positive outlooks despite rate pressures, the foundation is being laid for the eventual market turnaround.
The message from the data is clear: while freight rates may still be struggling to recover, carrier confidence isn't waiting for permission to grow. In the face of ongoing challenges, the industry is planting seeds for future growth, demonstrating that resilience often matters more than perfect conditions.
For shippers and logistics professionals, this represents both an opportunity and a reminder: the carriers who have weathered the storm may be operating with renewed confidence, but they're doing so in a market that still favors buyers. Navigating this balance will be key to building strong partnerships that can withstand market fluctuations and capitalize on the eventual recovery.
