You can raise barriers, add taxes, or slow down deliveries. But you cannot stop the flow-or the pace-of ecommerce.
Data shows that despite regulatory hurdles and cost pressures, ecommerce isn't just growing; it's transforming how air cargo operates worldwide. And for businesses that rely on international shipping, understanding this shift isn't optional-it's essential.
The unstoppable rise of ecommerce air freight
Ecommerce remains the engine of air cargo growth, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, global air cargo demand grew by 14% compared to the previous year, with the Asia-Pacific region leading the pack. That momentum hasn't slowed. By 2025, ecommerce-driven air cargo is expected to grow by another 20-25%.
Why such explosive growth?
Because platforms like SHEIN and Temu have rewired the logistics model. Instead of stocking inventory in overseas warehouses, they ship products directly from factory to consumer via air cargo. This isn't just fast-it's efficient, cost-effective, and fiercely competitive.
Where is the demand coming from?
- Asia-Pacific dominance: Social commerce sales in Asia are skyrocketing, with China leading the charge. By 2030, social platform sales are expected to reach a staggering $8.5 trillion.
- Key trade lanes: Demand is especially strong on routes linking Asia with Latin America and Europe. Despite new tariffs and stricter cargo checks, cross-border online shopping continues to surge.
- Capacity strain: Global air cargo capacity is only growing at 4-5%, while demand on major routes is expected to grow by 6-10% in 2025. This mismatch means higher loading rates, crowded airports, and pressure on pricing.
Challenges in the skies
It's not all smooth flying. The air cargo industry is facing:
- Congestion at major hubs: Airports in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and São Paulo are experiencing significant delays.
- Geopolitical disruptions: Conflicts and airspace restrictions-like those affecting European carriers flying between Europe and Asia-are forcing longer, more expensive routes.
- Regulatory pressure: Potential changes to de minimis rules in the U.S. could reshape how ecommerce shipments are handled.
Yet, like water, ecommerce finds its way. Carriers are adapting with new routes, more efficient aircraft, and smarter logistics strategies.
What does this mean for your business?
If you're shipping goods in 2025, agility is your best asset. Here's how to stay ahead:
1. Diversify your carrier mix
Relying on one airline or route is risky. With European carriers reducing flights to China, capacity is shifting to Chinese and Middle Eastern carriers. Broaden your partnerships to avoid bottlenecks.
2. Embrace multimodal strategies
When air capacity tightens, smart shippers combine air freight with ground transport or sea freight. During the U.S. FAA flight reductions in 2024, companies that pivoted to expedited ground services kept their supply chains moving.
3. Leverage digital tools
Real-time visibility and analytics are no longer optional. Digital platforms help you compare rates, track shipments, and adjust routes on the fly.
4. Plan around congestion
Use data to anticipate delays at crowded hubs like GRU (São Paulo) or VCP (Viracopos). Prioritize shipments and build buffer times into your logistics plan.
The bottom line
Ecommerce has rewired global air cargo. It's faster, more direct, and more resilient than many expected. For shippers, this means new opportunities-and new challenges.
The businesses that will win in this environment aren't just those with the fastest shipping or lowest costs. They're the ones that stay flexible, informed, and ready to adapt when the currents of change flow their way.
At XMae Logistics, we help you navigate these shifts. With real-time data, strategic partnerships, and agile logistics solutions, we make sure your goods keep moving-no matter what.
Need to optimize your air cargo strategy for the ecommerce boom?
Reach out to our team today →
