Hapag-Lloyd CEO Says Demand Won’t Quit – But The Middle East Is Still Calling The Shots

Here's something you don't hear often in shipping circles: demand is holding up better than expected.

That's the message from Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen, who said this week that container shipping demand has remained "surprisingly strong" despite everything the market has thrown at it this year. Middle East turmoil. Rhine low water levels. Tariff noise. And yet, the boxes keep moving.

Habben Jansen's tone was constructive on demand, but he didn't sugarcoat the risk side either. The situation in the Middle East remains "very strained and fluid," and the industry's outlook is still being shaped by conflict-driven disruptions and rising costs.

Let's start with the positive. Hapag-Lloyd's Q2 numbers tell a story of recovery. EBITDA came in at $829 million, slightly ahead of last year, with revenue climbing to $5.84 billion. Average freight rates rose 9% year-on-year to $1,475 per TEU, and volumes ticked up to 3.48 million TEU.

The driver? Strong exports out of Asia and improved US demand. Habben Jansen noted that demand growth on dominant trade lanes was about 7% in the first half of 2026, following roughly 6% growth in 2025.

As he put it: "Our Gemini network remained resilient and continued to outperform the market, setting the industry benchmark for schedule reliability".

But the Middle East bill is brutal

Now the uncomfortable part. Hapag-Lloyd has suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz entirely, prioritizing crew safety. That decision doesn't come cheap.

The carrier reported roughly $600 million in Middle East disruption costs in Q2 alone – bunker fuel, insurance, storage, rerouting, inland transportation. During the June customer call period, disruption-related costs were running at $50 million to $60 million per week.

Habben Jansen has been upfront about the scale. About 5% of Hapag-Lloyd's total global volume normally passes through Hormuz. That's not everything, but it's enough to throw a wrench into schedules, equipment positioning, and cost planning.

And the ripple effects go further than the Strait itself. Shanghai's Yangshan terminals have seen waiting times of eight to ten days for some services. Certain non-Gemini services faced delays of seven to eleven days. Port congestion, in other words, isn't just a Middle East problem.

Here's where it gets really complicated. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have been gradually returning services to the Suez Canal, shifting four more Gemini services away from the Cape of Good Hope route. The logic makes sense: shorter voyages mean less fuel burned and more effective capacity released into the market.

But there's a catch. A large-scale return to the Red Sea would reduce voyage distances and push effective vessel capacity back into the market – which could put downward pressure on rates precisely when carriers are trying to hold them up.

And not everyone is comfortable with the timing. Shippers' representatives have expressed shock at how quickly the Red Sea return is happening, given that Houthi attacks on Saudi targets along the Red Sea have been escalating.

Habben Jansen's own view? The more immediate risk is whether regional security conditions actually allow shipping lines to restore Red Sea services safely – and how quickly ports and carrier networks can absorb the resulting schedule changes.

Let's translate this into practical terms.

First, demand isn't collapsing. If you were expecting the market to go soft, the data doesn't support that yet. Volumes are growing, and carriers are managing capacity tightly.

Second, costs are volatile. War risk surcharges, contingency port charges, and rerouting expenses are all part of the equation now. Hapag-Lloyd has outlined contingency procedures for Gulf cargo that include possible destination changes, cargo returns, and storage at safe locations.

Third, schedules are still unpredictable. Even with some services returning to Suez, the broader network is operating under conditions that change week to week. Port congestion in Asia and Europe isn't going away overnight.

This is the kind of market where the gap between a smooth supply chain and a costly mess comes down to who's actually paying attention.

At Xiamen AE Global, we've been navigating Middle East-driven disruptions since they started. We're a government-licensed forwarder with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials. When carriers suspend services or reroute vessels, we're not waiting for a customer email to tell us something's wrong. We're already talking to our partners on the ground.

We work with over 100 overseas agents worldwide. That network gives us real intelligence on what's happening at each port, on each service, and with each carrier. When Hapag-Lloyd shifts a Gemini service back to Suez, or when a Gulf port faces berthing delays, we know – and we adjust our clients' routing strategies accordingly.

Our technology gives clients real visibility into their shipments – not just a tracking number, but actual insight into what's happening with schedules, capacity, and alternatives. When a surcharge lands or a route gets suspended, we alert you immediately and present options. Reroute through a different gateway? Switch to airfreight for time-sensitive cargo? Hold at origin until the situation stabilizes? We've got the data and the experience to make those calls quickly.

Based in Xiamen, one of Asia's busiest port cities, we combine global reach with the kind of local knowledge that only comes from moving all kinds of goods for over a decade. We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients.

Habben Jansen's message is clear: demand is resilient, but the market is exposed. Conflict-driven disruptions, rising costs, and Red Sea uncertainty aren't going away soon. Carriers are managing, but they're managing in crisis mode.

For shippers, that means the old playbook – book space, hope for the best – isn't good enough. You need a partner who understands the risks, has the relationships to find alternatives, and can pivot fast when the ground shifts.

At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate the unpredictable – whether that's finding a route around a suspended service, securing space when capacity tightens, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go, even when the world's most important waterways are in the headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Because when the market is this exposed, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who's already in the game.

Concerned about how Middle East disruptions might affect your shipments? Contact Xiamen AE Global today – and let's build a plan that keeps your cargo moving.