Rates Look Calm On The Surface—But Carriers Are Quietly Pulling Capacity Behind The Scenes

If you've been watching container freight rates lately, you might be feeling a strange sense of déjà vu.

The Drewry World Container Index sat at $4,476 per 40ft container for the second consecutive week in early September-flat as a pancake. Shanghai to Los Angeles nudged up 2% to $7,352, Shanghai to New York crept up 1% to $9,726. Meanwhile, Shanghai to Rotterdam slipped 2% to $3,997, and Shanghai to Genoa dropped 3% to $4,216.

So rates are stable. Great, right?

Not so fast. The calm on the surface is being engineered-quite deliberately-by carriers who are blanking sailings at rates we haven't seen since before the pandemic.

Here's what's actually happening. Drewry recorded 47 blank sailings out of 729 scheduled east-west departures between September 7 and October 11. For the transpacific alone, eight sailings are blanked next week, up from seven this week. On Asia-Europe, three sailings are cancelled, up from one.

That sounds manageable, right? Eight cancellations here, three there.

But zoom out and the picture changes dramatically.

Sea-Intelligence's analysis of the first half of 2026 found that carriers blanked 10% to 14% of scheduled capacity across the four main east-west trades. That's up from just 6% to 8% in the same period of 2019. On the Asia-US East Coast lane, blanked sailings hit 14% of scheduled capacity-the highest of any trade.

The trend isn't slowing down. On the Asia-US East Coast route, blanked capacity surged from 273,725 TEU in the first half of 2019 to 863,396 TEU in the first half of this year. That's a 215% increase. Total scheduled capacity on that lane grew just 46% over the same period.

Sea-Intelligence put it bluntly: "While the extreme volatility and massive withdrawal spikes of the pandemic-era have concluded, the pre-2020 expectation of minimal, single-digit capacity withdrawal is structurally obsolete."

In other words, blank sailings aren't a temporary fix anymore. They're a permanent feature of how carriers run their networks.

The answer is a mix of factors. China's Golden Week holiday is less than three weeks away, which typically slows bookings. Four typhoons in seven weeks have left a backlog of export cargo at Chinese ports, with ships waiting up to 12 days for a berth in Shanghai and Ningbo. On the Asia-Europe side, the selective return of services to the Suez Canal is restoring effective capacity and pushing rates downward.

One European forwarder told The Loadstar: "The peak is pretty much behind us." Another indicator? Carriers are putting time limits on the validity of their FAK pricing-something they don't normally do before a rate increase.

Even with demand softening, this isn't a normal low-season market.

On the transpacific, the current market looks like "an extended peak season that began earlier than usual and could leave ocean rates elevated through the end of September," according to US west coast forwarder Freight Right. CMA CGM has already announced peak season surcharges of $4,000 per 40ft from the Far East to the US west coast, starting October 1.

On the transatlantic, Rotterdam to New York rates climbed 3% to $3,126 per 40ft-now 100% higher than when the US-Iran conflict broke out.

The message is clear: this is a market where rates look stable, but the underlying dynamics are anything but. Carriers are pulling capacity with one hand and pushing surcharges with the other.

For shippers, this creates a difficult planning environment. Rates aren't crashing, but they're not predictable either. Space is being withheld in ways that aren't always visible until you try to book. And the structural nature of blank sailings means the old assumption-that you can always find a sailing when you need one-no longer holds.

As Sea-Intelligence warned, shippers should assume structural capacity withdrawals of 10% to 14%, depending on the trade lane, and adjust their inventory policies accordingly. Shippers heavily reliant on the Asia-US East Coast trade, in particular, should consider alternative routings and larger safety stocks.

At Xiamen AE Global, we've been navigating exactly this kind of market since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials, operating with more than a decade of hands-on experience in freight forwarding.

Blank sailings are a fact of life now. But that doesn't mean your cargo has to sit idle.

• Carrier relationships that actually deliver

We've built strong partnerships with key carriers and terminal operators at major ports. When sailings get blanked and space tightens, those relationships are what give us the leverage to secure competitive rates and reliable space for our clients-even when the market is running at 10% to 14% below scheduled capacity.

• Technology that keeps you ahead

We provide real-time visibility and proactive updates. When a sailing gets cancelled, you don't find out when your container doesn't move. You find out before it becomes a problem-and we're already working on alternatives. Our platform gives you clarity, not confusion.

• A network that goes beyond the booking screen

With over 100 overseas agents worldwide, we have eyes and ears on the ground at ports across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. When capacity gets pulled from one lane, we're already evaluating alternative routings and carriers. And with expertise in major Chinese ports-Xiamen, Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Guangzhou-we understand exactly how blank sailings and port congestion interact on the ground.

• A team that actually responds

We've moved over 15,000 containers in a single year by focusing on three things: making complex logistics simple, keeping costs predictable, and responding to emails within two hours. That last one matters more than you might think when a sailing gets blanked and you need a straight answer fast.

Container shipping has entered a new era-one where 10% to 14% of scheduled capacity is routinely withdrawn, and rates remain stable only because carriers are actively managing supply. It's a market that's restricted, but-if you have the right partner-predictable.

At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate a market where the headline numbers don't tell the whole story. Whether that's securing space when sailings are tight, finding an alternative route when a booking gets rolled, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go without costing you more than it should.

Because in a market where carriers are pulling capacity behind the scenes, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who knows which sailings are actually sailing-and how to get your cargo on them.

Concerned about blank sailings affecting your shipments? Contact Xiamen AE Global today-and let's make sure your cargo keeps moving, no matter what gets cancelled.