If you've been following air cargo markets over the past couple of years, you know that cross-border e-commerce has been the gift that kept on giving. Chinese platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress have turbocharged airfreight demand, filling freighter after freighter with low-value parcels bound for the US and Europe.
But that gift is starting to look a lot more complicated.
The numbers are turning sour
Cross-border e-commerce accounted for nearly 18% of intercontinental air cargo traffic last year. China dominates that trade, making up more than 80% of cross-border e-commerce revenue. But Trade and Transport Group's latest analysis shows that revenue has already fallen 4.5% in the first half of 2026, with all major markets except Asia Pacific recording significant declines.
And the worst may be yet to come.
The US crackdown: a 68% drop in traffic
When the Trump administration ended the US de minimis duty exemption for low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong effective May 2, the impact was immediate and brutal. E-commerce traffic from China plummeted from around 110,000 tonnes a month to roughly 35,000 tonnes – a drop of nearly 68%. China-to-US e-commerce exports were down more than 50% for a third consecutive month in December. For the full year 2025, e-commerce exports to the US were down 28%.
The crackdown has gone beyond just tariffs. US Customs & Border Protection has been conducting aggressive seizures – one recent operation reportedly netted around 1,000 tons of goods. Some Chinese e-commerce sellers have suspended air charter operations into the country entirely. Even customs brokers aren't immune: Seko Logistics had its Entry Type 86 participation suspended for 90 days, a move that left many shippers scrambling.
Now Europe is piling on
Just when Chinese e-commerce platforms thought they could pivot to Europe to offset US losses, the EU slammed the door too. As of July 1, 2026, the European Union has implemented a €3-per-item customs duty on low-value parcels from outside the bloc, effectively ending the de minimis exemption for shipments under €150. And that's not all – a €2 processing fee is set to follow later this year.
The early signs are ominous. When France and Italy tried to introduce similar fees early, customs declarations at Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport fell by 92%. Italian customs data showed a sharp 36% drop in low-value parcels. CDG is estimated to have lost around 50 freighter flights in the first week alone.
Derek Lossing, an e-commerce and air cargo consultant, expects air shipments of e-commerce goods into the EU to fall by 10% to 35% in the weeks after the fees take effect. "When the US ended de minimis, Europe was a really good alternative that platforms could shift to – but now there's not a really clear alternative to Europe," he said.
What this means for air cargo – and for you
Here's the uncomfortable reality: air cargo has become heavily dependent on e-commerce, which accounts for 20% to 25% of total annual volumes globally. If that demand continues to erode, the ripple effects will be significant.
DHL Global Forwarding's EVP of Global Airfreight put it bluntly: should the new European regulations lead to a "massive decline in e-commerce volumes going to Europe, a good deal of this freighter capacity would be freed up". But with jet fuel prices where they are today, "a lot of the freighters carrying e-commerce goods from China to Europe could well be taken out of the market because it would not be economical to fly them".
The consultancy also warned that tighter customs treatment is likely to encourage more local inventory and fulfilment, reducing direct China-to-consumer traffic and prompting a shift from pre-labelled parcels to consolidated shipments. That could move more e-commerce freight from air to sea, particularly in the large European and North American markets.
This is exactly when experience pays off
Navigating this kind of regulatory whiplash requires more than just a booking platform. It requires a logistics partner who understands the ground truth – what's actually happening at customs, which lanes are tightening, and how to keep your cargo moving when the rules change overnight.
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been moving freight through exactly this kind of complexity since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials – which means when customs regimes shift, we have the global network and the compliance expertise to keep your shipments compliant and on schedule.
Real relationships, real intelligence
With over 100 overseas agents worldwide, we don't read about customs crackdowns in the news and figure out what to do. We're already talking to our partners on the ground – in the US, in Europe, and across Asia – to understand how new regulations are being enforced in practice, not just on paper. When a customs broker gets suspended or a new fee takes effect, we know about it before it disrupts your supply chain.
Compliance that keeps you moving
The e-commerce customs landscape is changing faster than most shippers can keep up. The US de minimis removal, the EU's €3 duty, the processing fees, the increased inspections – each one adds complexity and risk. We help our clients navigate these changes with a compliance-first approach that doesn't sacrifice speed. Proper documentation, correct classification, and real-time updates on regulatory changes – that's how we keep your cargo moving while others get stuck in customs.
Technology that gives you real visibility
We've invested heavily in technology that gives our clients actual transparency – not just a tracking number, but real insight into what's happening with their shipments. When a new customs rule threatens to delay your cargo, we don't wait for you to find out the hard way. We alert you immediately and present options.
Local knowledge, global reach
Based in Xiamen – one of Asia's busiest ports – we combine the global reach of an IATA and FIATA-approved forwarder with the local knowledge of a partner who's been shipping all kinds of goods for over a decade. We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients. That's not luck – it's relentless execution and a network that doesn't fall apart when the rules change.
The bottom line
The golden era of duty-free e-commerce airfreight is ending. The US has closed its de minimis door. Europe has followed suit. And more regulatory pressure is likely coming.
For shippers, that means one thing: you need a logistics partner who understands the new reality – who can navigate customs crackdowns, find alternative routing options, and keep your supply chain moving even when the rules are changing by the week.
At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate complexity – whether that's adapting to new customs regimes, finding alternative routes, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go without getting stuck at the border.
Because when customs gets tougher, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who knows how to get through.
Ready to navigate the new customs landscape with a partner who's got your back? Contact Xiamen AE Global today – and let's keep your supply chain moving, no matter what regulators throw at it.
