If you've been watching container freight rates lately, you've probably noticed something unsettling. The numbers keep climbing. And what started as a spot-market spike is now landing squarely on your long-term contracts.
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand put it bluntly: "This is the fire spreading from the short-term market." And he's not wrong.
The numbers are staggering
Since the US and Israel began their bombing campaign against Iran in late February 2026, the container shipping market has been turned upside down. Spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast are now sitting at USD 6,965 per FEU – a 271% increase since the end of February. The US East Coast? USD 10,249 per FEU – up 287%. North Europe is up 121% to USD 4,909, and the Mediterranean has climbed 76% to USD 5,846.
But here's the kicker: that fire isn't staying in the spot market anymore.
The contract market is now feeling the heat
Average long-term rates from the Far East to the US West Coast are up 41% since February. The US East Coast is up 40%. North Europe? Also 41%. Even the Mediterranean, which saw a smaller spike, is still up 17%.
Sand described the disruption as "becoming a deepset and structural problem that will not go away any time soon". That means carriers are now in an "extremely powerful position to call the shots across both long-term and short-term markets".
Prior to the crisis, spot rates on the transpacific trade to the US West Coast were actually below long-term rates. Today, spot rates sit USD 4,103 per FEU higher. That spread gives carriers the confidence to keep pushing long-term rates higher and higher.
What this means for your bottom line
Here's the uncomfortable truth: if you're signing a one-year contract right now, you're locking in elevated costs for the next 12 months in a market that could correct itself well before then.
Sand's advice to shippers is clear: "Shippers should not go out into a rising market like this and lock themselves into a one-year deal. This is a market for contracts with a shorter tenure, securing space for the coming quarter, but with an adjustment mechanism if/when the short-term market turns."
This is where having the right partner actually matters
Markets like this separate the forwarders who just move boxes from the ones who actually protect your supply chain.
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been navigating exactly this kind of volatility since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials – which means when the market goes sideways, we have the global network and the carrier relationships to secure space for our clients, even when everyone else is scrambling.
1. Real relationships, real leverage
With over 100 overseas agents worldwide, we don't just watch the rate indices from a distance. We work directly with our partners on the ground to understand what's really happening with capacity and pricing on each trade lane. When carriers start pushing contract rates higher, we know about it – and we negotiate from a position of strength.
2. Flexible contracting that makes sense for you
In a rising market, locking into a rigid one-year deal is a gamble you don't have to take. We work with our clients to structure contracts that offer protection without locking you into inflated rates for longer than necessary. Shorter tenures, adjustment mechanisms, and the flexibility to pivot when the market turns – that's the kind of approach that keeps your supply chain profitable, not just predictable.
3. Technology that gives you real visibility
We've invested heavily in technology that gives our clients actual transparency – not just a tracking number, but real insight into what's happening with rates, capacity, and alternatives. When the market shifts, we don't wait for you to find out the hard way. We alert you immediately and present options.
4. Local knowledge, global reach
Based in Xiamen – one of Asia's busiest port cities – we combine the global reach of an IATA and FIATA-approved forwarder with the local knowledge of a partner who's been shipping all kinds of goods for over a decade. We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients. That's not luck – it's relentless execution and a network that doesn't fall apart when the market gets complicated.
The bottom line
The Middle East conflict has fundamentally reshaped container shipping pricing. Spot rates have exploded. Contract rates are following suit. And the disruption shows no signs of easing anytime soon.
For shippers, that means one thing: you need a logistics partner who understands the market dynamics, has the relationships to secure competitive rates, and can structure contracts that protect you – not lock you in.
At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move boxes. We help our clients navigate complexity – whether that's negotiating better contract terms, finding alternative routing options, or simply making sure your cargo gets where it needs to go without paying a premium for the privilege.
Because when the market is on fire, you don't need a spectator. You need a partner who knows how to put it out.
Ready to protect your supply chain from rising rates? Contact Xiamen AE Global today – and let's talk about smarter contracting for a volatile market.
