If you have shipped anything across the ocean in the past month, you have probably felt it - that sinking feeling when your freight forwarder tells you the rate you locked in last week is already outdated. That uneasy sense that carriers hold all the cards right now. And that sinking feeling is spreading fast.
Forwarders across major East-West trade lanes are sounding the alarm: spot rates are climbing, peak season surcharges are landing on long-term contracts, and shippers are being told there is no alternative but to pay up if they want their containers to actually get loaded.
One forwarder described the situation to The Loadstar in vivid terms: "'Pay to play' is back – the carriers smell blood and are lapping it up like a ravenous Count Dracula at the abattoir on slaughter day." Yes, that is an actual quote from a real industry professional. And yes, that is the shipping market we are navigating right now.
What is actually happening out there
The numbers paint a pretty clear picture. On the transpacific route to the US West Coast, average spot rates remain more than 50% higher than before the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. Prices have held steady at around USD 2,884 per FEU, refusing to budge downward despite what should be a quieter demand period. To the East Coast, it is USD 3,974 per FEU and holding firm.
But the real story is not just about spot rates - it is about what is happening to contract shippers. Multiple major carriers have issued aggressive general rate increase indications for June. CMA CGM will implement a USD 500 per teu peak season surcharge starting June 1. Hapag-Lloyd follows on June 8. And here is the kicker: carriers have said they will not cap these surcharges. They will be reviewed every two weeks. In the words of another forwarder: "I suspect it could go up in mid-June, it could go up again in July… it's going to go in that direction".
For shippers who thought long-term contracts would shield them from market madness, that protection is about to expire. On July 1, the bunker adjustment factors in many long-term deals are set to go "through the roof," as one forwarder put it. That is why we are seeing a massive push of cargo in June - shippers trying to get goods moving before the new surcharges hit.
And for anyone routing cargo toward the Persian Gulf? The situation is frankly terrifying. Spot rates have reached approximately USD 8,000 per container, but the bigger problem is that ocean capacity has effectively collapsed in that region. A rate locked in at USD 8,000 today reflects a situation of near-zero available capacity.
Wait - is there too much capacity or not enough?
If you are confused, you are not alone. The container shipping market in 2026 is living with a genuine contradiction.
On one hand, structural overcapacity is very real. The global container fleet added a staggering 1.4 million TEU in early 2026 alone, and the orderbook remains historically large. Global fleet capacity is growing faster than cargo demand, and analysts expect downward pressure on rates to persist through the year. On major East-West routes, capacity surplus is estimated at around 10% - nearly double the decade-long average of 4.5%.
On the other hand, the Middle East conflict has tied up usable capacity in ways that defy simple math. Ships are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope rather than transiting the Red Sea, adding days and sometimes weeks to each voyage. Those longer routes mean the same number of vessels complete fewer round trips per year. Braemar estimates that if diversions remain in place through 2026 - which now appears likely - effective overcapacity could be reduced from a projected 14% to just 5% this year. More vessels on paper, less capacity in practice.
What that means for shippers is brutal: freight rates stay elevated even as the underlying supply-demand math says they should be falling. Carriers are managing capacity aggressively through blank sailings and container rolling, and they are using every tool at their disposal - GRIs, PSSs, bunker surcharges - to extract maximum yield from every container they move.
How shippers are responding (and why some are struggling)
The uncertainty has thrown contract negotiations into disarray. US shippers are increasingly delaying long-term contract commitments, worried about locking in rates at elevated levels for the next 12 months. More cargo is moving on the spot market as a result - which, ironically, plays right into carriers' hands, because spot rates are exactly where they are charging the biggest premiums.
Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand noted that large shippers may ultimately be drawn to sign new long-term agreements anyway, because carriers are offering discounts to secure volume commitments. But for mid-sized and smaller importers, the negotiating leverage simply is not there. They are getting squeezed from both ends: too small to command favorable contract terms, too exposed to survive repeated surcharge hikes.
And here is the part that forwarders are not saying out loud but everyone knows: many shippers are paying peak season surcharges on top of long-term contract rates and getting no guarantees in return. Those PSS amounts are not fixed. They are reviewed every two weeks and can go up at any time. So when a carrier tells you "we will load your container if you pay the surcharge," what they are really saying is: "pay today, and we will see what we ask for in two weeks."
What shippers actually need right now
In this environment, resilience is not just a buzzword - it is survival. Shippers cannot control what carriers charge. They cannot control geopolitical instability. But they can control who they partner with to navigate through it.
This is where a freight forwarder makes all the difference. A forwarder with deep carrier relationships can secure space when others cannot. A forwarder with real-time market intelligence knows when to lock in rates and when to wait. A forwarder with flexible routing options can reroute cargo around congestion before it becomes a crisis.
At XMAE Logistics, we have been watching this market closely. Our team has seen the surcharges rolling in, the capacity tightening on key lanes, and the contract negotiations getting harder by the week. And we are adapting faster than the market can change. Our relationships with major carriers give us access to space that is simply not available to shippers negotiating on their own.
We offer multi-modal solutions that let our clients shift between ocean, air, and rail as market conditions dictate. When one lane tightens, we find another. When a carrier imposes an unexpected surcharge, we negotiate - and we have the volume and the relationships to make those negotiations matter. Our real-time market intelligence means our clients never pay yesterday's rate for tomorrow's cargo. And our flexible contract structures let shippers lock in predictable pricing without getting locked into terms that leave them exposed when the market inevitably shifts again.
The bottom line is this: "pay to play" is back, and the playing field is tilted against shippers right now. But you do not have to face it alone. With the right partner, you can still find space, control costs, and keep your supply chain moving - even when everyone else is stuck waiting.
The path forward
The coming weeks will be telling. June FAK rates are expected to approach USD 6,000 or even USD 7,000 per FEU on Asia-Europe lanes. Peak season surcharges are likely to rise again in mid-June and again in July. And the fundamental tension between fleet overcapacity and geopolitical disruption shows no signs of resolving anytime soon.
For shippers, the smart play is not to hope for rates to fall. It is to partner with a forwarder who can navigate the volatility, secure capacity regardless of market conditions, and absorb the shocks before they reach your bottom line.
At XMAE Logistics, that is exactly what we do every day. Reach out to our team to discuss your shipping strategy for the second half of 2026. Because in a brutal shipping environment, the best protection is a partner who knows the game and knows how to win.
