Just a few weeks ago, the global shipping industry pressed pause for the Chinese New Year (CNY). Factories shut down, volumes dried up, and carriers did their usual dance of blanking sailings to stem the bleeding . But as the dust settles and the factories in China hum back to life, the traditional "post-CNY scramble" is looking anything but traditional this year.
If you're a shipper trying to figure out Q2, you might want to sit down for this one. The ocean freight alliances are looking at the spring market through completely different lenses, and their strategies for the east-west trades couldn't be more opposed.
According to new analysis from Sea-Intelligence, we are witnessing a fascinating divergence in how the major alliances are deploying their fleets through mid-May .
On one side, you have the Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, and OOCL). They are going all in. Their Asia-North America West Coast weekly capacity is scheduled to jump from around 105,000 TEU to a whopping 128,000 TEU. Similarly, on Asia-North Europe, they are pushing capacity from 128,000 TEU to 138,000 TEU . This isn't just a minor adjustment; it's an aggressive bet that the "spring market expansion" is real and ready to go . They are essentially flooding the zone, trying to capture every single box that moves.
On the other side of the ring, you have the Gemini Cooperation. Their strategy is the polar opposite. Their capacity remains almost static. We're talking about a microscopic rise from 44,400 TEU to just 45,000 TEU on the transpacific . Because of this, Gemini is actually losing market share-dropping from 15% to 13% on the transpacific and from 27% to 23% on Asia-North Europe-not because they are shrinking, but because their rivals are sprinting while they are walking .
Why the Different Playbooks?
It really comes down to philosophy versus flexibility.
Sea-Intelligence notes that the Ocean Alliance's network is "highly elastic." They are building a structure that can scale up to absorb market volume, but that comes with a catch: high weekly volatility . One week they have tons of space; the next, they might have to blank sailings to adjust. It's aggressive, but it can be bumpy.
Gemini, however, is playing the reliability card. Their deployment is rigid and static, built for schedule stability rather than capturing sudden market surges . It's a safer bet for their operations, but it means they simply don't have the firepower to handle a sudden spike in demand right now.
What Does This Mean for Your Cargo?
For importers and exporters, this "great divide" creates a tricky landscape. If demand stays tepid, carriers will likely ramp up blank sailings to keep rates from collapsing, especially as the industry faces structural overcapacity . But if demand surges, the Ocean Alliance is poised to handle it, while Gemini might be caught flat-footed.
Navigating this kind of uncertainty requires a partner who doesn't just book space but actually understands the nuances of these alliance strategies. This is where XIAMEN AE GLOBAL SCM comes into play.
What Does This Mean for Your Cargo?
For importers and exporters, this "great divide" creates a tricky landscape. If demand stays tepid, carriers will likely ramp up blank sailings to keep rates from collapsing, especially as the industry faces structural overcapacity . But if demand surges, the Ocean Alliance is poised to handle it, while Gemini might be caught flat-footed.
Navigating this kind of uncertainty requires a partner who doesn't just book space but actually understands the nuances of these alliance strategies. This is where XIAMEN AE GLOBAL SCM comes into play.
Your Bridge Across a Divided Market
As a licensed freight forwarder with over a decade of industry experience and approvals from IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC, we aren't just watching these trends-we are actively navigating them for our clients every day. Since our founding in 2018, we've built a network spanning over 100 overseas agents, giving us the boots-on-the-ground intel that spreadsheets can't capture.
When the Ocean Alliance flexes its capacity, we know exactly which vessels are filling up and where the sweet spots for rates are. When Gemini holds the line on stability, we leverage our relationships to secure space where others see scarcity.
We offer very competitive shipping rates by sea, air, and railway because we understand that in a market defined by volatility-whether it's the Red Sea reroutes or these post-CNY alliance shifts- flexibility is the only real currency .
Whether you need a DDP service to get your goods door-to-door without hassle, a complex consolidated sea freight solution, or urgent air cargo delivery, our team treats every shipment with professionalism, honesty, and a sincerity that big-box logistics providers often forget.
The market is split between the aggressors and the conservatives. You don't have to pick a side. You just need a partner who can play on both.
Contact XIAMEN AE GLOBAL SCM today. Let's talk about how we can turn this market volatility into a supply chain advantage for you.