If you've been watching air freight rates this year, you've probably felt a bit whiplashed.
Back in December, the consensus was clear: 2026 was going to be a buyer's market. Xeneta predicted long-term shipper rates would fall 5% to 10%. Capacity was expected to outpace demand. Shippers were eyeing cheaper contracts and breathing a little easier.
Then February 28 happened.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. Passenger belly capacity declined. And suddenly, all those predictions went out the window.
Now, Xeneta's mid-year update tells a very different story: long-term rates are expected to rise 5% to 15% this year instead. Global air cargo rates-combining spot and long-term contracts-jumped 17% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. Spot rates soared around 40% in May alone.
The Contract Crunch Is Real
For shippers, this whiplash has made contract negotiations a nightmare.
Many buyers spent late 2025 avoiding long-term commitments, betting on further price erosion. One-year contracts accounted for just 24% of new deals in Q4 2025, down 20 percentage points from the previous quarter. The strategy made sense at the time. Rates were supposed to fall.
Instead, they skyrocketed.
Now shippers are scrambling. Some are extending existing contracts and paying short-term surcharges while waiting for rates to soften. Others are being forced into the spot market, where pricing remains volatile. And the situation varies wildly by lane. Intra-Asia BSA rates for 2026 are expected to increase 10% to 20% compared with 2025-while other key lanes have seen their own unique pressures.
To make matters worse, IATA's revised Direct Air Waybill framework took effect on July 1, reshaping how liability is allocated across airlines, shippers, and forwarders. The changes could leave forwarders responsible for obligations traditionally borne by shippers-including cargo misdeclarations, concealed dangerous goods, and packaging failures. That's a significant reallocation of risk that adds yet another layer of complexity to an already messy contract landscape.
AI Demand Isn't Helping
Meanwhile, demand isn't cooperating with anyone's plans. AI-related cargo-semiconductors and hardware-is booming. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year-on-year in April 2026, up 106%. While AI goods still account for less than 10% of total air cargo volume, they're heavily concentrated on the transpacific-now the year's strongest corridor. That means capacity on key Asia-U.S. lanes is under constant pressure.
This Is Where Having the Right Partner Pays Off
So what does all this mean for your supply chain? In plain English: locking in air freight capacity and predictable pricing has never been harder-or more important.
At Xiamen AE Global, we've been navigating exactly this kind of market volatility since 2018. We're a government-licensed company with IATA, FIATA, FMC, and NVOCC credentials-which means when the market flips overnight, we don't just read about it in the news. We're already working on solutions for our clients.
Block Space Agreements That Actually Deliver
One of the biggest challenges in a tightening market is simply securing space. That's where our Block Space Agreements (BSAs) with major carriers come in. These agreements give us guaranteed access to capacity on crucial routes, reducing your exposure to last-minute market fluctuations and securing more consistent pricing. When airlines are prioritizing long-haul, high-yield routes and passenger belly capacity is declining, having that guaranteed space isn't a luxury-it's a lifeline.
Visibility When You Need It Most
We've also invested heavily in technology that gives our clients real transparency into their shipments. When a rate spike hits or capacity tightens on a key lane, we don't wait for you to find out the hard way. We alert you immediately and present options-whether that means adjusting routing, securing alternative capacity, or locking in rates before they climb higher.
Local Knowledge, Global Reach
Based in Xiamen-one of Asia's busiest air cargo hubs-we combine the global reach of an IATA and FIATA-approved forwarder with the local knowledge of a partner who's been shipping all kinds of goods for over a decade. We work with over 100 overseas agents worldwide, giving us real-time intelligence on what's happening at each origin, each destination, and each carrier.
We've moved over 12,000 TEUs in a single year with a 98.6% on-time delivery rate for our SME clients. That's not luck. It's the result of relentless execution and a network that doesn't fall apart when the market gets complicated.
The Bottom Line
The air freight market in 2026 has been a rollercoaster-and it's not over yet. Rates that were supposed to fall are rising. Capacity that was supposed to be abundant is tight. And contract negotiations that were supposed to be straightforward have become a minefield.
At Xiamen AE Global, we don't just move cargo. We help our clients navigate the chaos-with guaranteed capacity, real-time visibility, and a team that actually picks up the phone when things get complicated.
Because when the market flip-flops overnight, what you really need isn't a better prediction. It's a partner who's got your back.
Ready to lock in reliable air freight capacity for your shipments? Contact Xiamen AE Global today-and let's talk about how we can keep your supply chain moving, no matter what the market throws at it.
